Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Final Pre-Election Thoughts

This will be my final post before the election begins.  To put it succinctly, I'm optimistic.  Here are a few high points to justify my position.

Pretty much all of the long-term trends are going in favor of Romney (or, perhaps more accurately, against Obama), and have been for weeks.  The Chick-Fil-A event this past year was a huge movement of support in favor of freedom of religion and speech, both of which have been relentlessly attacked by the Obama administration (and the equivalent left-wing events, like the Chick-Fil-A kiss-in or the 'Million Muppet March' are complete flops).  People are tired of the low-class berating and insults from Obama-Biden that look oh-so-unpresidential.  The 2010 elections were a Republican landslide of historical proportions, an outright rejection of Obama's radical Leftist agenda.  Most of the special elections that have been held since 2010 have gone the way of the Republican, even in blue states (the failed attempt to recall Scott Walker in Wisconsin, for example).  Romney's and Ryan's recent campaign stops are seeing huge crowds, while Obama's final stop yesterday was in a half-empty stadium in Ohio.  The biggest issue of this election is the economy, and the facts are that Obama has presided over the worst 'recovery' since the Great Depression...the promised jobs simply aren't there.  Persistent high unemployment, the failures on Benghazi, constant bowing to foreign leaders, chronic blaming of America first, racial accusation after racial accusation, and a general appearance of not caring, not engaging, and incompetence have all chipped away at the image of Obama as the Messiah who would lower the seas and heal the planet.  The Tea Party is alive and well, and I think is a political time-bomb that has been patiently waiting to go off today.  Even the most shallow anecdotal evidence -- the Washington Redskins and LSU both losing at home the weekend before the election -- are leaning toward Romney.  Never mind all this, the media has already called the election for Obama.

If you look at most of the polls, they're showing various degrees of a 'dead heat', within the margin of error.  The only way they can do this is by severely over-sampling Democrats in a model that has nothing to do with voter enthusiasm or current party self-identification, both of which are also trending Republican in a big way right now.  For example:
The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29): 
 Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans. 
A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls.
Interesting, don't you think?  You see, the media is unabashedly in the tank for Obama.  They're trying to depress Republican turnout, and cover up any possible indication that their guy might lose, to the extent that they are able.  But, on top of everything else, a Romney campaign internal poll gives us solid reason for optimism.  Also, there's this: independent voters are breaking toward Romney big-time.
Team Romney is drawing satisfaction and a growing sense of confidence from a new CNN poll that, while over-weighting Democrats, shows that Mitt Romney is running away with independents, the Big Kahuna in Tuesday's presidential election. 
According to a new CNN poll, Romney is beating President Obama 59 percent to 35 percent among independents even when third party candidates are included. The poll has the race deadlocked at 49 percent, but the sample includes 11 percent more Democrats than Republicans, 41 percent to 30 percent, a bigger gap than recent elections have witnessed. 
What's more, the poll found a slight edge for Romney when it came to those who call themselves "very enthusiastic" about voting. In that category, Romney beats Obama 42 percent to 37 percent.
And this independent thing is huge, so huge that one of the most intelligent election experts in the country, Michael Barone, thinks that this will not only be a Romney win, but big Romney win:
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president. 
But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday's job report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents — voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans — break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39% to 32%, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, where Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Hit the link for his full estimates.  His prediction is Romney winning 315 electoral votes to Obama's 223.

Full disclosure: I'm choosing to be optimistic because the alternative is, to me, unthinkable.  More on that in a moment, but let's just say I have faith that there are a whole lot of people like me out there, and that we'll find that out in the next day or so.

But don't get me wrong, this is far from a slam dunk.  After all, we're already seeing 'irregularities' from Philly and voting machines that magically change Romney votes to Obama votes in Coloradomultiple votes in Nevada, theft and other dirty tricks in Ohio, Black Panthers 'monitoring' voting stations again, and the prevention of military votes by the Department of Defense itself.  I'm sure it's purely a coincidence that every documented incident of voter fraud benefits Democrats.  We don't want another mess involving lawsuits and provisional ballots, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the Democrats will file lawsuit after lawsuit, especially in close precincts.

When you break it all down, it's all guess-work at this point.  What matters is the ground game, and getting out the grass roots to vote.  That's why it is so critical that each and every Romney supporter get to the polls, no matter what the TV networks or radio announcers say.  Keep in mind that those 'early reports' are based purely on exit polls, and it has been explicitly demonstrated time and time again that Democrats are far more likely to participate in exit polls.  Remember the 2004 election, when media networks began calling various states for Kerry?  They ended up having to go back and retract those calls later...because the exit polls turned out to be too heavily slanted toward Democrats.  But they reported it anyway because they wanted to depress Republicans who were voting late in the day.  Remember the mess with hanging chads in Florida in 2000?  The Florida panhandle is heavily Republican, but it's also in a different time zone, and thus those polls closed an hour later than the rest of the state, which is much more Democrat.  The TV networks called the state for Gore before the polls even closed in the panhandle.  How many Republicans stayed home because they thought it was over?  We'll never know.

What we do know is that the media is pulling for Obama outright, and we know that they will call states early if they think they can get away with it for a few hours, even if they have to recant later.  So ignore anything they say, and get to the polls!

Here's why it matters.  I believe this election is a tipping point.  At this time in history, there is more than enough access to information about the truth of Barack Obama and his radical Leftist policies.  If anyone has eyes to see, he or she will see.  If there aren't enough people left in America who support the traditional views and principles set forth by the Founders to overcome even the inevitable cheating and fraud from the Left, then this nation is lost.  We will not survive another four years of Obama's policies.  Obamacare alone will truly transform this nation into a dependent state that is irreversible, and far more European than (formerly) American.  We've already got record numbers of dependents upon government, record numbers of food stamp recipients, record numbers of people on disability...another four years and we will be in an essentially permanent recession.  On top of the fiscal components, the Obama administration has shunned Christianity and Israel, and embraced Islam whenever possible.  Obamacare will force religious institutions to provide birth control despite being antithetical to their religious beliefs.  The moral decay in this nation is festering, and four more years of this onslaught will take its toll.  And for those who might be inclined to sit out the election because they don't necessarily like Romney...don't.  To not vote for Romney equates to a vote for Obama.  I agree with Dr. Jeremiah - we have a moral responsibility to vote for the best candidate available, even if he isn't our ideal candidate.  You may get a guy who only reflects your values 50% of the time, but isn't that better than a guy who reflects your values 10% of the time?  You don't get to choose neither, you have to pick the best one available, and that means either Romney or Obama.  No sitting out on this one.

If Obama wins another four years, I believe it will signal the beginning of the end.  America will continue, of course, but it will be on an irreversible course toward being just another primarily socialist nation.  There will be no going back.  It's no longer a question of if, but a question of when.  If that happens, I will weep for our children and grandchildren, for they will grow up in a land that promises them vastly less than we were promised.

I believe America will choose a long-term direction today one way or the other.  We will choose liberty or tyranny, and we have only one chance to get it right.

More info:

A Voter's Guide for Independents And Undecideds
Obama's 4 Years Of Deficient Leadership

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