Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Final RNC Post And DNC Predictions

I'll abbreviate what I was planning to say in terms of final thoughts on the GOP convention since the DNC began tonight.  Basically, I thought Romney did fine.  Not great, but good enough.  He clearly addressed the Democrat attack points of a 'war on women' and his approachability, and I thought he did a good job of it.  I thought he did a good job of painting a picture of America that was inspiring and forward-looking, with an overriding theme of needing to get back to what made America work.  He was a bit tamer than I would have liked, gently suggesting that although Obama tried hard was a really nice guy, he just hasn't gotten the job done.  I would have been considerably more between-the-eyes, but that's just me.  I still think Romney's message was on point, and will still carry a lot of weight with a lot of people.  My favorite clip -- and one that really underscores the reality of both campaigns -- is this, beginning at 1:00 in:

I think it will be very interesting to see how the Democrat convention goes.  I realize that as I type this, the first night has already wrapped up, but I haven't yet looked at any of the coverage so it's still a surprise to me.  From that perspective, here's what I am expecting.

I think that the idea of two competing visions for the future of America will remain on center stage.  Whereas the Romney vision is less government and more individual responsibility and freedom, I think the Obama vision will continue to be more government and less individuality, with deep-seated collectivism throughout the entire event.  The GOP speakers often spoke of personal victories over difficult circumstances and of making a better life in an America that rewards hard work and personal effort, I think we'll hear a lot of talk during the DNC about unfairness, fairness, and pointing blame onto someone else.  Whereas the GOP event was focused on taking America back in a different direction from where we're currently heading in order to give our children a brighter future, I think the Dem even will be focused on solidifying the gains the progressive agenda has made over the past four years.  More than anything else, I suspect we'll hear a lot of fear-mongering and hyperbolic vitriol directed at George W. Bush, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and at anyone who disagrees with any plank in the Democrat platform.  There will be precious little promotion of the successes of the past four years, and a whole lot of threats based on what the GOP will do to America if they win this November.

Two competing visions, indeed.

But that's basically all they've got at this point - every major policy 'victory' they've achieved was done so in opposition to large majorities of the nation, so to really pat themselves on the back for those accomplishments will only remind people of all the government overreaches that have taken place in recent years.  Rather than dredging up those 'successes' and promise more, they'll instead rely on making bogeymen out of Republicans in the hopes that they'll scare/intimidate enough voters (especially the ignorant moron vote) to stem what is likely to be significant losses at the polls.  They cannot promote their own record, which is either antagonistic to most Americans or an abject failure to anyone with a brain, so they must attack their opposition.  That's it, plain and simple.

Following up on my last post on the conventions, here are a few more reasons the Dems are in full-fledged dodge-and-panic mode due to their schizophrenic policy positions:
- they took millions of dollars from big corporations, but refuse to acknowledge the name of the facility they're using to bash big corporations
- multiple high profile Dems have likened Republicans to Nazis
- the long-term trends continue to show an increasing advantage for Romney
- as the DNC gets underway, the national debt goes over $16 trillion (a full $5 trillion of which has been added in just the past 4 years under Obama's watch)
- the Romney/Ryan campaign continues to hit the question of whether or not Americans think they're better off now than 4 years ago (and most say no), and the Dems have no answer for it
- food stamps continue to hit new record highs
- key economic statistics continue to slump
- they're moving Obama's big speech from a large outdoor stadium to an indoor venue 1/3 of the size...due to *ahem* weather considerations despite massive efforts at busing in supporters from surrounding states
- there has been an enormous shift from self-identifying as Democrats to self-identifying as Republicans in recent months (the biggest since the poll question has been asked)
- only 40% of Americans think Obama deserves to be re-elected (with 54% saying no)

The list goes on and on, but you get the point.  They're in trouble, and there's no ambiguity about it.

Prior to the evening event, here are a few things that have come out already:
- Obama gave himself an "incomplete" grade for his first four years, and the Dems think that's a pretty darned awesome accomplishment
- the Dems removed "God" from their party platform
pro-Israel language was removed from their party platform
- the Dems support taxpayer funded abortion in all cases

These are things we know will be present already.  We'll see just how strident the voices are in proclaiming these things, which the Dems clearly believe are reflective of the majority of Americans.  Another example is that the national percentage of people self-identifying as gay or lesbian is 1%, but the DNC will have roughly 9% gay/lesbian in attendance.  Given that gay/lesbian issues tend to be very politically contentious, is a representative sampling so vastly off-balanced from the nation as a whole actually representative?  They think so.  We'll also see just how closely matched those policy planks and representations are to the nation, though, won't we?

One final note on the "incomplete" grade.  It appears that's already become a bit of an oopsie, as it played right into the GOP position:

"The president is asking people just to be patient with him," Republican Party vice presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan said on CBS's "This Morning" today about Obama's grade for himself. "Look, Charlie, the kind of recession we have, we should be bouncing out of it creating jobs. We're not creating jobs near the pace [we] could." 
"That's why we're offering big solutions to the big problems we have today and I would just say, if you take a look at the president's policies he calls them 'investments.' It's borrowing money and spending money through Washington, picking winners and losers. Spending money on favorite, you know, people like Solyndra or Fisker. Picking winders and losers in the economy through spending, through tax breaks, through regulations does not work," Ryan observed. 
"If that kind of economics work, we would be entering a golden age along with Greece," Ryan said of Obama's spending policies. "So I think the 'incomplete' speaks for itself and that is why I think that we are going to win this and get this country back on the right track because we're offering bold solutions."


Even worse, it's also supported by effective video ads like this one from the RNC:

More updates on the DNC in the coming days...

PS - bonus irony alert: the Democrats are forcing people to show their ID not once, not twice, but three times in order to get into the facility.  Funny how showing ID is a serious infringement of an American's right to vote, but no big deal when it comes to getting into the DNC, don't you think?  Even more ironic is that the Barack Obama 'birther' mugs showing a copy of Obama's released birth certificate are formal campaign donations, so ID must also be shown before those can be purchased...just sayin'...

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