Thursday, August 4, 2011
The Decline Of Obamanomics
Yay for Obamanomics!!! Here's Drudge at the moment:
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Further down we see these groups of links:
And...
Anyone with half a brain and the willingness to see reality knows this is the inevitable result of Obama's policies, but we usually see it play out over the course of months, years, or decades - it's downright creepy to watch happen in the space of one or two days.
Bottom line: how's that compromise working out for you now, Republican squishes? You keep telling yourselves that you 'had to do something' and that this was 'just the first step' if you want to. The rest of us living out here in the real world are angry, frustrated, and completely unsurprised. On top of that, we're befuddled at what it's going to take for you people to grow a spine and get serious about actually doing something productive and helpful rather than merely looking like you're doing something productive and helpful.
Just Open Your Eyes
I'll have a more comprehensive post on the after-effects of the so-called debt deal later, but for now, let's just look at one thing: the stock market. If this deal was such a great thing for the country, and actually saved us from the debt ceiling armageddon that Obama and the Dems were hyping (remember, this deal would 'save life on the planet as we know it'), then why has the stock market been in free fall ever since it was signed into law? In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the current losses wipe out all gains made since January, and investors are running scared because they expect no real improvements anytime soon.
Huh.
Much, much more on the way...
Despite The Current Heat Wave...
...global warming took another serious blow recently:
Oh, and it's also laughable because that very same Obama administration is continuing to push garbage policies based on Monnett's own political position, like this new gem:
NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.The short version is that these 'alarmist computer models' used assumptions that were based more on the alarmists' political agendas rather than actual empirical data.
And, at this point, we know for a fact that they aren't at all honest about it. Hot Air summarizes this way:In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth's atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth's atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict.
When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a "huge discrepancy" between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.
AGW advocates insist that people respect the scientific consensus that we’re all going to kill Mother Earth if we don’t take radical action now to stop emissions of a natural substance into the atmosphere. However, we don’t have consensus, and what little we do have seems less and less scientific as data emerges.Being a little more blunt, Doug Powers says this:
In all fairness, I wouldn’t expect computer models to be spot-on simulations of the real climate system, but in honest research I would expect computer models to, at least once in a while, not always coincidentally err on the side of the equation that just happens to make Al Gore richer and serve as “evidence” that the UN should be further funded to police the impending catastrophe.He also reports on a related story. Remember the poor, poor polar bears that are drowning because so much of their ice is melting due to global warming and they can't find anywhere to get out of the water (never mind that they can swim 60 miles at the drop of a hat)? It's political propaganda put up by someone now under investigation for misconduct:
A federal wildlife biologist whose observation in 2004 of presumably drowned polar bears in the Arctic helped to galvanize the global warming movement has been placed on administrative leave and is being investigated for scientific misconduct, possibly over the veracity of that article.He's claiming that he's being 'politically persecuted' by the Obama administration, but that's as laughable as the notion of polar bears dying off (remember, there are 5 times as many polar bears today as there were 50 years ago).
Charles Monnett, an Anchorage-based scientist with the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, or BOEMRE, was told July 18 that he was being put on leave, pending results of an investigation into “integrity issues.”
Oh, and it's also laughable because that very same Obama administration is continuing to push garbage policies based on Monnett's own political position, like this new gem:
The longer these people remain in charge of American policy, the more damage they do...and for all the wrong reasons.In what has become a depressingly repeating pattern, if you take your eyes off of the EPA for too long they get up to all sorts of plans to “save” America. When they’re not fiddling around with vehicle mileage standards or cross-state emission regulation plans, they apparently spend their time taking a fresh look at ozone standards. They were originally set to issue some new guidelines on July 29 during the height of the debt debate, but the plan was temporarily tabled. Now, however, it’s back on the menu.
The U.S. economy won a temporary reprieve with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) announcement last week that new ozone standards, which had been slated for this summer, will be delayed. The EPA’s “reconsideration” of the ozone standards it set in 2008 and issuance of more stringent standards violate all three of the fundamental values EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson pledged to honor: “science-based policies and programs, adherence to the rule of law, and overwhelming transparency.”[1]
This enormously expensive regulation is unsupported by scientific evidence, violates the Clean Air Act (CAA), and appears timed to evade ongoing judicial review of the rulemaking process. Even the EPA’s estimate that the new rule will impose up to $90 billion in compliance costs annually[2] severely understates the impact on economic development and jobs in communities where attainment of the new standards will be impossible.
Back in 2008 the standard for ozone levels was set at an already challenging level of 75 ppb (parts per billion). Combined with other efforts, both regulatory and voluntary on the part of industry, air quality has been steadily improving from low points in the seventies. So why tinker with success, right?
Never ones to let a little think like that stop them, the EPA is now pushing to tighten the ozone standard to 60 ppb. (A proposal which has raised any number of eyebrows, since certain popular destinations fail to meet that standard today, including Yellowstone National Park.) But this will at least improve everyone’s health, right? According to a new study from NERA Economic Consulting, the health benefits are “greatly exaggerated” at best.
EPA’s assumed causal relationship between ozone and mortality has not been supported by EPA’s science advisors;
The health benefits EPA attributes to the tighter ozone standard should are due to a slight reduction in particulate matter (dust), which already is regulated separately by EPA; and
The EPA’s own data show that the benefits of the proposed ozone standard will not outweigh the costs.
But there must be some upside to this, right? We’re all supposed to focus on jobs now, as I recall. Hopefully this will at least help us out on that front!
Oh, it’s going to have an effect, alright. A study by Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI estimates that strengthening the ozone standard to 60 ppb could cost the U.S. economy more than $1 trillion per year between 2020 and 2030, and destroy 7.3 million jobs.
You may now return to your regularly scheduled banging of your heads against the wall.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
For What It's Worth...
...here's a brief reminder of apparent priorities:
From CNSNews.com (via BigPeace, emphasis mine):
(CNSNews.com) – President Barack Obama on Monday issued a statement marking the start of Ramadan, the month devoted to prayer and fasting in the Muslim religion."As Ramadan begins, Michelle and I would like to send our best wishes to Muslim communities in the United States and around the world," the statement reads. "Ramadan is a festive time that is anticipated for months by Muslims everywhere."
Obama did not issue a statement marking Easter this year [...]
A review of presidential statements documented at whitehouse.gov indicates that Obama has apparently not issued a statement specifically about Easter since taking office in January 2009.
Obama issued Ramadan message and hosted a special Ramadan White House dinner in 2009 and 2010.
Draw your own conclusions (you Islamophile racist you!!!).
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Divorce Agreement
A friend of mine forwarded this to me, and I had to post it.
DIVORCE AGREEMENTDear American liberals, leftists, social progressives, socialists, Marxists and Obama supporters, et al:We have stuck together since the late 1950's for the sake of the kids, but the whole of this latest election process has made me realize that I want a divorce. I know we tolerated each other for many years for the sake of future generations, but sadly, this relationship has clearly run its course.Our two ideological sides of America cannot and will not ever agree on what is right for us all, so let's just end it on friendly terms. We can smile and chalk it up to irreconcilable differences and go our own way.Here is a model separation agreement:--Our two groups can equitably divide up the country by landmass each taking a similar portion. That will be the difficult part, but I am sure our two sides can come to a friendly agreement. After that, it should be relatively easy! Our respective representatives can effortlessly divide other assets since both sides have such distinct and disparate tastes.--We don't like redistributive taxes so you can keep them.--You are welcome to the liberal judges and the ACLU.--Since you hate guns and war, we'll take our firearms, the cops, the NRA and the military.--We'll take the nasty, smelly oil industry and you can go with wind, solar and bio diesel.--You can keep Oprah, Michael Moore and Rosie O'Donnell. You are, however, responsible for finding a bio diesel vehicle big enough to move all three of them.--We'll keep capitalism, greedy corporations, pharmaceutical companies, Wal-Mart and Wall Street.--You can have your beloved lifelong welfare dwellers, food stamps, homeless, home boys, hippies, druggies and illegal aliens.--We'll keep the hot Alaskan hockey moms, greedy CEO's and rednecks.--We'll keep the Bibles and give you NBC and Hollywood.--You can make nice with Iran and Palestine and we'll retain the right to invade and hammer places that threaten us.--You can have the peaceniks and war protesters. When our allies or our way of life are under assault, we'll help provide them security.--We'll keep our Judeo-Christian values.--You are welcome to Islam, Scientology, Humanism, political correctness and Shirley McLane. You can also have the U.N. but we will no longer be paying the bill.--We'll keep the SUV's, pickup trucks and oversized luxury cars. You can take every Volt and Leaf you can find.--You can give everyone health care if you can find any practicing doctors.--We'll continue to believe health care is a luxury and not a right.--We'll keep "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" and "The National Anthem."--I'm sure you'll be happy to substitute "Imagine", "I'd Like to Teach the World to Sing", "Kum Ba Ya" or "We Are the World".--We'll practice trickle down economics and you can continue to give trickle up poverty your best shot.--Since it often so offends you, we'll keep our history, our name and our flag.Would you agree to this? If so, please pass it along to other like-minded liberal and conservative patriots and if you do not agree, just hit delete. In the spirit of friendly parting, I'll bet you answer which one of us will need whose help in 15 years.Sincerely,John J. WallLaw Student and an AmericanP.S. Also, please take Ted Turner, Sean Penn, Martin Sheen, Barbara Streisand, & Jane Fonda with you.P.S.S. And you won't have to press 1 for English when you call our country.
If only...
Cyberattacks
Unfortunately, it looks like I'm going to have to do at least one more post on the debt battle as all the final details wrap up. For now, let's hit a mostly unrelated subject - cyberattacks.
Many people may not have caught it, but about a year ago there was a momentary flap about a brand new computer virus called Stuxnet. Here's a cool video that explains what it was, what it did, and why it was a watershed moment in security circles:
Wow. This is, in a word, incredible. And scary. For a fascinating in-depth read about the whole thing and how it was unraveled, go here.
Stuxnet essentially paralyzed Iran's nuclear facility for a while, though they wouldn't admit it. It appears the U.S. was involved in some capacity, though Defense officials never really admitted as much.
Personally, I hope it was us, at least in part. With all of the recent reports of China's increasingly aggressive attacks and aspirations on U.S. national cybersecurity, it would be nice to know we can still pull off something this gutsy and slick. Since Stuxnet was open-sourced and released to the Internet, though, this could work both ways, and U.S. officials have already expressed concern over the possibility of a Stuxnet-like attack on us. This is probably why they have also announced that any such cyberattack would be considered an act of war, with possible reprisals including military hardware (the actual exploding kind). This is one policy on which I find myself heartily agreeing with the Obama administration (though I'm very skeptical they would actually pull the trigger if we were attacked through cyberspace, but I suppose you have to start somewhere, right?).
A few months ago, there were rumors of a second Stuxnet-like attack (called the Stars virus) on Iran's facilities, though the details of that one are much less clear. Regardless, it's safe to assume that we are living in the age of cyberattacks, and it is very possible that the next major terrorist attack may involve nothing more than malicious code. But, as Stuxnet proves, malicious code can be devastating.
And here's where we bring things full circle. Would you or would not agree that this is a critical piece of national security? Would it make you feel better to know that the U.S. is fully committed to not only staving off potential attacks against us, but also fully engaged in staying as far ahead of our enemies as possible?
Then ask yourself this: why is Congress congratulating itself on passing a debt default avoidance deal that includes the active gutting of the Defense Department budget?
Many people may not have caught it, but about a year ago there was a momentary flap about a brand new computer virus called Stuxnet. Here's a cool video that explains what it was, what it did, and why it was a watershed moment in security circles:
Wow. This is, in a word, incredible. And scary. For a fascinating in-depth read about the whole thing and how it was unraveled, go here.
Stuxnet essentially paralyzed Iran's nuclear facility for a while, though they wouldn't admit it. It appears the U.S. was involved in some capacity, though Defense officials never really admitted as much.
Personally, I hope it was us, at least in part. With all of the recent reports of China's increasingly aggressive attacks and aspirations on U.S. national cybersecurity, it would be nice to know we can still pull off something this gutsy and slick. Since Stuxnet was open-sourced and released to the Internet, though, this could work both ways, and U.S. officials have already expressed concern over the possibility of a Stuxnet-like attack on us. This is probably why they have also announced that any such cyberattack would be considered an act of war, with possible reprisals including military hardware (the actual exploding kind). This is one policy on which I find myself heartily agreeing with the Obama administration (though I'm very skeptical they would actually pull the trigger if we were attacked through cyberspace, but I suppose you have to start somewhere, right?).
A few months ago, there were rumors of a second Stuxnet-like attack (called the Stars virus) on Iran's facilities, though the details of that one are much less clear. Regardless, it's safe to assume that we are living in the age of cyberattacks, and it is very possible that the next major terrorist attack may involve nothing more than malicious code. But, as Stuxnet proves, malicious code can be devastating.
And here's where we bring things full circle. Would you or would not agree that this is a critical piece of national security? Would it make you feel better to know that the U.S. is fully committed to not only staving off potential attacks against us, but also fully engaged in staying as far ahead of our enemies as possible?
Then ask yourself this: why is Congress congratulating itself on passing a debt default avoidance deal that includes the active gutting of the Defense Department budget?
The deal promises to raise the debt ceiling by the highest amount ever—more than $2 trillion—while reducing spending by close to $1 trillion over the next decade. It envisions 6 percent and 7.5 percent cuts in defense spending from the President’s budget request in February for fiscal years 2012 and 2013, respectively.How do you feel about picking up the phone and making a couple calls to your representative now?
Monday, August 1, 2011
I Call Bull
I used to think my Rep, Sam Graves, was 'one of the good ones'. He's a solid, down-the-line conservative, and he seems to genuinely attempt to keep what's best for his constituents in front of him. However, he was not one of the 22 who voted against this sham deal. Many Reps who I had previously thought were solid, down-the-line conservatives weren't. In my inbox this morning I found this message waiting for me:
I call bull.
He's parroting the same tripe that Boehner's been saying, and it's a hollow argument at best. You know what I think? I think he knows he's going against his constituents here, and is trying to pre-empt some of the furious phone calls he's bound to get today (one of which will be from me). He went along to save Boehner's butt and so he can say he helped pass a solution, but quite frankly, I'm done with Republicans who go squishy like this when it counts most and resort to half-measures that no one with any understanding or credibility in politics or economics thinks will accomplish meaningful results.
Let's review.
1. The debt ceiling increase is the full $2.5 trillion immediately.
2. Our credit rating will more than likely be downgraded anyway because they focus on spending rather than debt, and this is no meaningful change in spending.
3. As a result of the efforts of dozens of debt reduction commissions over the past 30 years, America's national debt has been reduce from $1 trillion to $14 trillion. Nice work.
4. America would never default on its debts. If crunch time came, the President would decide which bills got paid first, and no President would stamp his name all over the first default in American history.
5. Compromise wasn't necessary. These days, compromise only makes things worse.
6. These aren't spending cuts, they're tiny little reductions in the rate of growth of government. The national debt will be trillions of dollars higher in 10 years even if these cuts materialize. Which they won't.
If we're being real, we can count on two things. First is that Democrats will do anything and everything they can to further their radical Leftist/Socialist/Marxist agenda, which is pretty much the worst possible thing for both individual liberty and a healthy American economy. Second is that Republicans are full of hot gaseous emanations, and can be counted upon to stand up for the right thing clear up until the point at which it matters most, and then they will cave like the spineless cowards they are.
There's a reason Congress currently has a 6% approval rating, and this is it.
Last week, the House of Representatives passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 to reduce spending by $917 billion and increase the debt ceiling by $900 billion. In addition, the bill would create a commission to identify a further $1.6 trillion in savings by the end of this year and require both houses of Congress to vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment.
My vote was a down-payment on the tough choices that must be made to get our spending under control in the months and years ahead. I would rather the Senate and President had agreed with our plan to cut, cap and balance our budget. However, they did not and compromise was necessary.
This bill is not perfect. However it is a necessary first step. These are meaningful and serious changes to the spending status quo. The spending habits of Washington for the last five decades have finally caught up with us.
International credit ratings agencies warn us that they will downgrade our triple-A bond status if we do not act to address our spending. That move would cause a negative ripple effect on anyone who needs a loan, has an investment or is looking for a job.
Similarly, I do not believe that a default on our debt would be good for an economy that is already struggling to create jobs. America should pay its debts. However we cannot simply raise the debt ceiling and postpone the tough choices that need to be made any longer.
The House has now passed two different plans to end this crisis. It is time for the Senate and President to join us in safeguarding our economy and to begin making the tough choices necessary to return our country to a fiscally responsible course.
I call bull.
He's parroting the same tripe that Boehner's been saying, and it's a hollow argument at best. You know what I think? I think he knows he's going against his constituents here, and is trying to pre-empt some of the furious phone calls he's bound to get today (one of which will be from me). He went along to save Boehner's butt and so he can say he helped pass a solution, but quite frankly, I'm done with Republicans who go squishy like this when it counts most and resort to half-measures that no one with any understanding or credibility in politics or economics thinks will accomplish meaningful results.
Let's review.
1. The debt ceiling increase is the full $2.5 trillion immediately.
2. Our credit rating will more than likely be downgraded anyway because they focus on spending rather than debt, and this is no meaningful change in spending.
3. As a result of the efforts of dozens of debt reduction commissions over the past 30 years, America's national debt has been reduce from $1 trillion to $14 trillion. Nice work.
4. America would never default on its debts. If crunch time came, the President would decide which bills got paid first, and no President would stamp his name all over the first default in American history.
5. Compromise wasn't necessary. These days, compromise only makes things worse.
6. These aren't spending cuts, they're tiny little reductions in the rate of growth of government. The national debt will be trillions of dollars higher in 10 years even if these cuts materialize. Which they won't.
If we're being real, we can count on two things. First is that Democrats will do anything and everything they can to further their radical Leftist/Socialist/Marxist agenda, which is pretty much the worst possible thing for both individual liberty and a healthy American economy. Second is that Republicans are full of hot gaseous emanations, and can be counted upon to stand up for the right thing clear up until the point at which it matters most, and then they will cave like the spineless cowards they are.
There's a reason Congress currently has a 6% approval rating, and this is it.
Post-Mortem
I hate the final deal, but GOOD LORD I'm supremely glad we can get on with other things!
Yes, a deal is done. I won't bore you with all the stupid theatrics of the final back-and-forth, but the point is that the 'crisis' has been averted, at least for now. Here's a nutshell of the deal:
Liars and the Lies They Lie About
Here's the dirty little secret: Moody's has already said that none of the plans being kicked around will avert a downgrade of the U.S.'s AAA credit rating. As we've been discussing, this is because the credit rating is based on spending habits rather than debt levels. Since none of these deals really made a significant change in the reckless spending coming out of Washington, a downgrade is still more or less assured.
Two final thoughts, first from Erick Erickson at RedState:
It boggles the mind how these Republicans are either so stupid they can't figure out that they just bent over for the Democrats again, or that they genuinely seem to think that the American people are so stupid that we don't know what they've done. I simply can't believe that they've deliberately flushed so much leverage -- not to mention their so-called principles -- down the toilet. They're going to have some explaining to do to a livid and rebelling base.
The real problem here is what will happen when the Tea Partiers and true conservatives chuck the Republican establishment. If that fracture occurs, and doesn't heal by the time the election comes around, Obama will manage to squeak out a victory and win himself another four years.
But time will tell on that. My final thought is this video from Americans for Prosperity that really says it all:
Yes, a deal is done. I won't bore you with all the stupid theatrics of the final back-and-forth, but the point is that the 'crisis' has been averted, at least for now. Here's a nutshell of the deal:
The agreement would slice at least $2.2 trillion from federal spending over a decade, a steep price for many Democrats, too little for many Republicans. The Treasury's authority to borrow would be extended beyond the 2012 elections, a key objective for Obama, though the president had to give up his insistence on raising taxes on wealthy Americans to reduce deficits.Here are a few final (I hope) points to convey, and then we'll hit some other stuff.
Liars and the Lies They Lie About
Hit the link to check out the other big lies (significant spending cuts, action on a balanced budget amendment, obtaining victory, and being on the verge of default). Bottom line: these people suck raw eggs, and are lying like a knock-off Persian rug.LIE #1: THE BOEHNER PLAN CONTAINS “NO NEW TAXES”
This was untrue with respect to Boehner 3.0 -– the version which passed the House –- and it’s untrue with respect to Boehner 7.0 –- the new “compromise” which emerged Sunday afternoon.
The potential tax increase resulting from Boehner (or the “compromise” which has emerged as a result of passing Boehner) will certainly be enormous and unfilibusterable, even though it is deliberately concealed from us now.
It will be hatched by a 7-man majority of a 12-man commission which will consist of six Pelosi/Reid Democrats and one frightened Republican. (Reid and Pelosi will not call it a “commission” for the same reason Satan doesn’t like the word “sin.”)
The commission will be prodded into action by a “trigger” –- probably across-the-board cuts which slash Medicare and defense in ways which won’t conceivably be allowed to go into effect.
The big tax increase will be unveiled using all the shibboleths (“millionaires and billionaires,” private jets, etc.). And, under the rules, Jim DeMint and Rand Paul will not be able to filibuster or amend it. The Jeff Flakes will, by that point, realize the folly they allowed to go forward. But their votes won’t be needed. In that hour, the Democrats will provide the needed votes.
And the only real alternative to a tax increase? Repealing the mechanism and raising the debt limit for a second tranche without any deficit reduction.
So, the message to Boehner-supporting House conservatives? Suckers!!!
Here's the dirty little secret: Moody's has already said that none of the plans being kicked around will avert a downgrade of the U.S.'s AAA credit rating. As we've been discussing, this is because the credit rating is based on spending habits rather than debt levels. Since none of these deals really made a significant change in the reckless spending coming out of Washington, a downgrade is still more or less assured.
Two final thoughts, first from Erick Erickson at RedState:
Back in 1994, Rush Limbaugh wrote See I Told You So. From page 88 of the book:
[T]he cure for: a) the budget deficit = more taxes; b) unemployment = more taxes; c) recession = more taxes; d) environmental problems = more taxes; e) illiteracy = more taxes; f) L.A. riots = more taxes. It doesn’t matter what the nature of the problem is.
This week, whether you listened to Rush, Sean, Mark, or even me filling in for Boortz, we’ve been telling you so. This whole farce in Washington is a way to get more tax revenue from you and despite public pronouncements from the Republicans that they were holding the line on tax revenue they were either (A) complicit behind the scenes or (B) going to get played.
We were right.
What we know about the pending deal is that the Democrats and Republicans are agreeing to a Deficit Commission. Despite the media spin — and the spin of some Republican sycophants — the deficit commission, which will be a super committee of the Congress, will have the power to come up with new tax revenue.
And if the Congress rejects the Commission’s demands for new tax revenue, there will be a trigger that cuts both medicare funding and defense funding.
Except, the defense funding cuts will be much more massive than the medicare cuts. And the GOP, in addition to seeing defense cut, would be hacking off seniors right before an election.
In other words, Republican Leaders are asking their members to accept tax increases or massive defense cuts and senior anger right before the election. Oh, and the medicare cuts technically wouldn’t come from beneficiaries, but from providers. Those same providers who’ll just stop taking medicare patients.
It’s not that the GOP got played so much as GOP leaders were collaborating on this. Boehner wanted a grand bargain and now he’s going to get it along with tax increases.
It boggles the mind how these Republicans are either so stupid they can't figure out that they just bent over for the Democrats again, or that they genuinely seem to think that the American people are so stupid that we don't know what they've done. I simply can't believe that they've deliberately flushed so much leverage -- not to mention their so-called principles -- down the toilet. They're going to have some explaining to do to a livid and rebelling base.
The real problem here is what will happen when the Tea Partiers and true conservatives chuck the Republican establishment. If that fracture occurs, and doesn't heal by the time the election comes around, Obama will manage to squeak out a victory and win himself another four years.
But time will tell on that. My final thought is this video from Americans for Prosperity that really says it all:
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Friday's Summary
Briefly, here's where things stand...
Boehner got his compromise deal, but just barely:
Note to self: these people are the serious conservatives. I'm very disappointed in a lot of other Reps who I know are solid but went along with Boehner's stupid plan anyway. I'm going to be very interested in hearing how my Rep, Sam Graves, justified his vote.
Anyway, once the House passed it, the bill went over to the Senate...where it was promptly killed:
So, the question remains: will Harry Reid and the Senate Dems substitute a bunch of their junk and send the formerly Boehner bill back to the House as we discussed yesterday? We'll find out soon enough what the final compromise will be.
Of course, in a beautiful example of just how much compromise there is when elected Dems talk about compromising (emphasis mine):
Nice. And what was that saying from just a few weeks ago? Oh yeah, that's right: Republicans should sit in the back seat. Sounds very bipartisanshipish and compromisey to me.
Anyway, if Reid does what's expected, what can we expect from his version of the Boehner bill? Higher taxes, gutting the military, fake savings and accounting gimmicks, and the largest debt increase in history, among other things. Basically, everything that Obama and the Dems wanted in the first place, and everything that will continue to damage the American economy. And, of course, if the Senate passes such a garbage bill with just a few hours left before the (artificial) deadline, then the House will have to either go along with it or be left holding the hot potato when the clock runs out.
Nice work, House Republicans. Could you be any more stupid and naive?
In the backdrop to all of this, we see new economic reports showing that the second quarter was awful, the first quarter was revised down from awful to abysmal, and now they're going back to re-calculate everything from 2007 forward because they've been jiggering the numbers since then. In fact, things are getting so bad that illegal aliens are flocking back to Mexico, where the unemployment rate is less than 5%. If that doesn't say it all, nothing does.
But it's still the Republicans who are the economic terrorists, of course.
But at least Americans are starting to see and acknowledge who's really the problem here. A recent Gallup polls shows Obama losing 10 points in favorability over just the past week, dropping to the lowest level since he took office.
It truly boggles the mind how the Republicans failed to see that they are the ones with all the leverage in this situation, and acted like the losers they apparently are.
Boehner got his compromise deal, but just barely:
Speaker John Boehner pushed his debt-ceiling bill through the House Friday night with the support of 218 Republicans. Here are the 22 no votes:
Justin Amash (Mich.)
Michele Bachmann (Minn.)
Chip Cravaack (Minn.)Jason Chaffetz (Utah)
Scott Desjarlais (Tenn.)
Tom Graves (Ga.)
Tim Huelskamp (Kans.)
Steve King (Iowa)
Tim Johnson (Ill.)
Tom McClintock (Calif.)
Mick Mulvaney (S.C.)
Ron Paul (Texas)
Connie Mack (Fla.)
Jim Jordan (Ohio)
Tim Scott (S.C.)
Paul Broun (Ga.)
Tom Latham (Iowa)
Jeff Duncan (S.C.)
Trey Gowdy (S.C.)
Steve Southerland (Fla.)
Joe Walsh (Ill.)
Joe Wilson (S.C.)CORRECTED: Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) voted YES on the Boehner bill. That was incorrect in the initial list. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) has been added to the list.
Note to self: these people are the serious conservatives. I'm very disappointed in a lot of other Reps who I know are solid but went along with Boehner's stupid plan anyway. I'm going to be very interested in hearing how my Rep, Sam Graves, justified his vote.
Anyway, once the House passed it, the bill went over to the Senate...where it was promptly killed:
Well, that was a brief victory for the speaker of the House. As expected, the Senate rejected the Boehner plan by a 59-41 vote. All Democrats voted no. Six Republican senators -- Lindsey Graham, Jim DeMint, David Vitter, Mike Lee, Orrin Hatch, and Rand Paul -- voted against Boehner, opposing the plan from the right. (Note that Hatch must really be worried about a primary challenge.)
So, the question remains: will Harry Reid and the Senate Dems substitute a bunch of their junk and send the formerly Boehner bill back to the House as we discussed yesterday? We'll find out soon enough what the final compromise will be.
Of course, in a beautiful example of just how much compromise there is when elected Dems talk about compromising (emphasis mine):
"Obvious what is being done in the House is not compromise. It is being jammed through with all kinds of non-transparent dealings, people shuffling in and out of the Republican Leader's office. We're recognizing that the only compromise that there is, is mine," Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) said.
Nice. And what was that saying from just a few weeks ago? Oh yeah, that's right: Republicans should sit in the back seat. Sounds very bipartisanshipish and compromisey to me.
Anyway, if Reid does what's expected, what can we expect from his version of the Boehner bill? Higher taxes, gutting the military, fake savings and accounting gimmicks, and the largest debt increase in history, among other things. Basically, everything that Obama and the Dems wanted in the first place, and everything that will continue to damage the American economy. And, of course, if the Senate passes such a garbage bill with just a few hours left before the (artificial) deadline, then the House will have to either go along with it or be left holding the hot potato when the clock runs out.
Nice work, House Republicans. Could you be any more stupid and naive?
In the backdrop to all of this, we see new economic reports showing that the second quarter was awful, the first quarter was revised down from awful to abysmal, and now they're going back to re-calculate everything from 2007 forward because they've been jiggering the numbers since then. In fact, things are getting so bad that illegal aliens are flocking back to Mexico, where the unemployment rate is less than 5%. If that doesn't say it all, nothing does.
But it's still the Republicans who are the economic terrorists, of course.
But at least Americans are starting to see and acknowledge who's really the problem here. A recent Gallup polls shows Obama losing 10 points in favorability over just the past week, dropping to the lowest level since he took office.
It truly boggles the mind how the Republicans failed to see that they are the ones with all the leverage in this situation, and acted like the losers they apparently are.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Friday Morning Debt Battle Update
Well, well, well...are conservatives in the House causing such a ruckus that they're finally getting through to the GOP leadership? Maybe so...
More details from Jennifer Rubin here:
I find this update later to be veeeeery interesting:
Still, much remains to be done, and that includes you. Have you called yet? If not, today may be your last chance. If you have, call again. Trust me, the more you do it, the easier it gets.
Here are a few points to consider on the subject:
I heard a radio interview this afternoon that explained another plan that I really like. It's called the Mack Penny plan, proposed by Rep. Connie Mack out of Florida. Here's the nutshell:
Well, America is staring into the face of a monstrous financial disaster, and cutting one percent of its spending every year should be easy to do. I like Cut, Cap, and Balance, but I like the Penny plan, too. Might be worth mentioning to your Rep when you call.
Now let's look at the other side of the house. There's nothing responsible, bipartisan, or leader-like about the Democrats right now. On top of the absolute refusal to do anything to resolve this financial mess we're in (other than making it worse), the Dems are doing everything they can to ratchet up the hysteria. The top Democrat in the House, Nancy Pelosi, laid this wonderful gem yesterday:
But it doesn't get much better from the top Dem himself. It appears that if a deal isn't struck, Obama is considering invoking the 14th Amendment to deal with it on his own. This will be a legal and political maelstrom, and Obama's decisiveness is something that has been rarely seen over the past two years, so this is obviously something they'd rather avoid. It should also be noted that this kind of dangerous unilateral action is what's so undesirable about a monarchy, and the kind of thing that should never happen in a representative republic like America. But, they're using the threat of this action as a club to beat down Republican opposition:
Why the fear-mongering? Do we really believe that if push came to shove Obama would release hardcore criminals from prison? Would he really cut off Medicare or Social Security checks? Not a chance. I could see him hammering the military, which would be shameful, but any one of these things is going to cause such a massive blowback from the American public that I'm not sure he'd be able to get away with pointing the finger at the Republicans. Yeah, he'll argue that they forced him into it, but the reality is that the question of which checks get paid first rests on him alone. If someone gets screwed, it happens because Obama doesn't think they're important enough to be at the top of the list.
Here are a few more things to keep in mind.
Why August 2nd? What's so special about that date that a deal has to be struck by then? The answer is: nothing. The only significance to that date is that it's when Congress usually goes home for the August recess. That's right, Obama and the Democrats have established August 2nd as some mythical drop-dead date to avert a crisis...but in reality, the date of a theoretical default is in September. The only thing they're trying to avoid by using August 2nd is having to put up with angry constituents throughout the month of August - they had enough when Obamacare was the hot topic, and they don't want to deal with that again.
We're going to be downgraded anyway. I hate to break it to you, but it's pretty much a foregone conclusion. The big debate right now over the debt limit really isn't even the key point. The key point is the spending. Moody's and Standard&Poor's are saying that even if the Boehner bill passes, it will really have no effect on the decision to downgrade us because it doesn't fundamentally change how much spending is going on. They're saying that immediate spending cuts of $4 trillion minimum are necessary for them to consider keeping America at a 'AAA' rating. Like I said yesterday, at this point Congress is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Baseline budgeting. Even if the Boehner plan goes through, and even if these promised $1 trillion in cuts occur over the next decade (and it's a virtual certainty that they won't), the bloated U.S. government will be trillions of dollars bigger anyway. The dirty little secret is called baseline budgeting, and it's how Congress has operated things for decades. The core idea is that there is an automatic increase of 7.5% in operating costs from year to year. So, this year the budget was something like $3.7 trillion. Even if Congress doesn't increase spending at all, next year's budget will be in the neighborhood of $3.9 trillion. The year after that it will be roughly $4.3 trillion. The year after that it will be $4.6 trillion. Get the picture? It's an automatic increase. All of these 'cuts' that are being debated in the Boehner plan are not actually cuts - they're reductions in the amount of increase. So, instead of the 7.5% automatic annual increase, it might be only a 7% annual increase. Or whatever, I don't know the actual number. The point is that government will still grow.
The Penny plan I mentioned above would be an actual cut. If this year's budget is $3.7 trillion, next year's would be $3.6 trillion, and so on. This is how a tiny 1% cut each year will save us $7.5 trillion and bring the budget into complete balance in about just years.
Finally, let's remember who put us in this position. Yeah, it took both parties decades to build the foundation of our massive debt and reckless spending habits. But, starting with the Democrat-controlled Congress in 2007, spending has skyrocketed out of control, and Obama's spending binge starting in 2009 has thrown fuel on the fire. Recall the deficit picture over the past decade or so:
The big deficits that threw Dems into hissy fits back when George W. Bush was President were on the order of $200-300 billion. Now Obama and the Dems have racked up $1.6 trillion deficits for the indefinite future. In terms of the overall debt, look at the indisputable historical facts:
It took 235 years to rack up $8 trillion in debt. Since 2007 -- just four years -- Democrats have almost doubled that amount. Can you imagine what this chart will look like after another four years of Obama running the show?
America can't afford Democrat leadership any longer. America also can't afford Republican squishiness like what we're seeing from Boehner and the other compromisers. It's absolutely critical that we make a distinct course change NOW before it's too late.
That changes starts with killing every plan currently on the table. Congress needs to pass Cut, Cap, and Balance or the Penny plan, but they won't do it without immense pressure from American citizens who understand what this country faces better than our elected representatives.
PICK. UP. THE. PHONE.
More details from Jennifer Rubin here:
A House aide just e-mailed me: “Buckets of crazy.” That’s as good an explanation as any as to why Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) won’t be able to hold a vote tonight on his debt-ceiling bill. The burn-the-building-down set is weakening, but the speaker is still short on votes.
A more optimistic take came from a senior House leadership advisor, who told me that some key members had asked to sleep on it. There is sometimes a point in a negotiation (which is what this is) when it is counterproductive to push on. As the advisor explained: “The speaker was not going to force a midnight vote. We’re not going to do that on something this big.”
...
There are a couple of benefits to drawing this out (although I have no indication whatsover from conversations with half a dozen House Republican offices this evening that the delay is attributable to anything other than difficulty in rounding up the votes). First, Boehner will certainly have a strong argument that nothing OTHER than this bill can get through the House before August 2. And second, as time slips away, there is less and less time for the Senate to come up with an alternative that can pass both houses by August 2.
The smart money is still on the eventual passage of the Boehner bill. But it’s not going to happen without extracting every last drop of patience from the American people, not to mention the media covering one of the most agonizing votes in recent memory.
I find this update later to be veeeeery interesting:
Jim DeMint, if you don't know, is one of the staunchest, most steadfast conservatives in Washington, and has shown over and over again that he will stand for his principles no matter what the opposition says or does. If he is working with a bunch of 'freshmen' -- many of whom were elected precisely because they pledged to get in there and shake up Washington while cutting back the size of government -- this is good, good news to me.A House aide who was present for much of the wrangling tonight said “we were a number of votes short.” Five? Twenty? “Somewhere in there,” he answered.
He said the opponents were “a mix of freshmen and others.” In particular, South Carolina representatives were “a problem.” He spoke derisively of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), who has been working with the House delegation: “These guys now have a new leader -- this guy Jim.”
Still, much remains to be done, and that includes you. Have you called yet? If not, today may be your last chance. If you have, call again. Trust me, the more you do it, the easier it gets.
Here are a few points to consider on the subject:
(1) House Republicans are walking into an enormous trap. The Boehner plan is sufficiently similar to the Reid plan, in virtually all important respects, that its passage will lead to the following compromise:
- The adoption of Boehner’s ten years of sham cuts,which will be ephemeral beyond fiscal year 2012. Even John McCain said tonight that Gramm-Rudman (whose “sequestration” provisions are the enforcement mechanism for Boehner) became worthless because Congress just started declaring emergencies.
- A commission which will report out large tax increases which cannot be filibustered. The “deciders” on the commission will be six Pelosi/Reid people and one squish Republican, who will be corralled into submission by:
- A “trigger” which will make the pressure currently being applied to Congress seem small by comparison.
(2) Unless you can guarantee that it will go to the states, a guarantee of a losing vote on the balanced budget amendment is worthless.
(3) Dick Morris is correct that if Tuesday comes and goes, with only a shut-down of unessential government agencies, the American people will see Obama’s fear-mongering for what it is.
(4) Furthermore, as 2008 taught us, the GOP can sell all of its principles and spend the better part of a trillion dollars and the stock market will still continue to fall –- particularly since Standard & Poor’s is about to downgrade the U.S. for being too timid in debt reduction.
(5) Finally, Obama is currently reeling from his poor stewardship. For Republicans to capitulate and give him a “compromise” will reset him on a glide path to reelection. The liberal media is currently “spinning” that Republicans have won, but, after they lose, their surrender will be reported for what it was.
I heard a radio interview this afternoon that explained another plan that I really like. It's called the Mack Penny plan, proposed by Rep. Connie Mack out of Florida. Here's the nutshell:
It's hard to get much more simple than that. And it plays nicely with common sense. Just think about it - how much does it hurt to cut your expenses by 1% (the name of the plan comes from the idea of cutting one penny from every dollar)? Not much. If you make $50k a year, this would mean spending $500 less, or roughly $42 a month. If you were facing bankruptcy and the repossession of your home and everything you owned, would you think about cutting back from your 1000-channel cable package to basic cable with 100 stations to save that money? Would you consider cutting the minutes on your cell phone plan to save that money? Would you consider eating out one or two less meals a month to save that money? Sure, you would. In the fact of impending financial disaster, it's an easy sacrifice to make.Presently the Mack Penny plan enjoys the support of over 40 co-sponsors in the U.S House; the backing of the Republican Study Committee’s 103 Members, three key U.S. Senators, and two grassroots organizations .
The Penny Plan balances the budget by:
· Cutting total federal spending by one percent each year for six consecutive years,
· Setting an overall spending cap of 18 percent of gross domestic product in 2018, and
· Reducing overall spending by $7.5 trillion over 10 years.
If Congress and the President are unable to make the necessary cuts, the bill’s fail-safe triggers automatic, across-the-board cuts to ensure the one percent reductions are achieved.
Well, America is staring into the face of a monstrous financial disaster, and cutting one percent of its spending every year should be easy to do. I like Cut, Cap, and Balance, but I like the Penny plan, too. Might be worth mentioning to your Rep when you call.
Now let's look at the other side of the house. There's nothing responsible, bipartisan, or leader-like about the Democrats right now. On top of the absolute refusal to do anything to resolve this financial mess we're in (other than making it worse), the Dems are doing everything they can to ratchet up the hysteria. The top Democrat in the House, Nancy Pelosi, laid this wonderful gem yesterday:
Nancy Pelosi on today’s vote: “What we’re trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We’re trying to save life on this planet as we know it today.”Really? That's what you have to contribute here? Thanks for being so, so helpful.
But it doesn't get much better from the top Dem himself. It appears that if a deal isn't struck, Obama is considering invoking the 14th Amendment to deal with it on his own. This will be a legal and political maelstrom, and Obama's decisiveness is something that has been rarely seen over the past two years, so this is obviously something they'd rather avoid. It should also be noted that this kind of dangerous unilateral action is what's so undesirable about a monarchy, and the kind of thing that should never happen in a representative republic like America. But, they're using the threat of this action as a club to beat down Republican opposition:
If there is no clear path out of this morass by tomorrow, sources say that administration officials will likely brief the public on how the Treasury Department will try to handle the bills Congress mandates that the government pay given a situation where Congress has not given them a way to do so.
Look for that briefing to come no earlier than Friday after the markets close at 4 p.m. ET, sources say.
Officials are most concerned about paying the interest on the existing debt, since failure to do so would result in default and almost certain immediate market panic, as well as questions about how Treasury would be able to roll over a pre-existing $87 billion in debt that comes due next week.
After that — a list of priorities, not all of which that can be met. Social Security checks? Medicare? Government workers? Pentagon contractors? Troops’ salaries? The FBI?
Why the fear-mongering? Do we really believe that if push came to shove Obama would release hardcore criminals from prison? Would he really cut off Medicare or Social Security checks? Not a chance. I could see him hammering the military, which would be shameful, but any one of these things is going to cause such a massive blowback from the American public that I'm not sure he'd be able to get away with pointing the finger at the Republicans. Yeah, he'll argue that they forced him into it, but the reality is that the question of which checks get paid first rests on him alone. If someone gets screwed, it happens because Obama doesn't think they're important enough to be at the top of the list.
Here are a few more things to keep in mind.
Why August 2nd? What's so special about that date that a deal has to be struck by then? The answer is: nothing. The only significance to that date is that it's when Congress usually goes home for the August recess. That's right, Obama and the Democrats have established August 2nd as some mythical drop-dead date to avert a crisis...but in reality, the date of a theoretical default is in September. The only thing they're trying to avoid by using August 2nd is having to put up with angry constituents throughout the month of August - they had enough when Obamacare was the hot topic, and they don't want to deal with that again.
We're going to be downgraded anyway. I hate to break it to you, but it's pretty much a foregone conclusion. The big debate right now over the debt limit really isn't even the key point. The key point is the spending. Moody's and Standard&Poor's are saying that even if the Boehner bill passes, it will really have no effect on the decision to downgrade us because it doesn't fundamentally change how much spending is going on. They're saying that immediate spending cuts of $4 trillion minimum are necessary for them to consider keeping America at a 'AAA' rating. Like I said yesterday, at this point Congress is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Baseline budgeting. Even if the Boehner plan goes through, and even if these promised $1 trillion in cuts occur over the next decade (and it's a virtual certainty that they won't), the bloated U.S. government will be trillions of dollars bigger anyway. The dirty little secret is called baseline budgeting, and it's how Congress has operated things for decades. The core idea is that there is an automatic increase of 7.5% in operating costs from year to year. So, this year the budget was something like $3.7 trillion. Even if Congress doesn't increase spending at all, next year's budget will be in the neighborhood of $3.9 trillion. The year after that it will be roughly $4.3 trillion. The year after that it will be $4.6 trillion. Get the picture? It's an automatic increase. All of these 'cuts' that are being debated in the Boehner plan are not actually cuts - they're reductions in the amount of increase. So, instead of the 7.5% automatic annual increase, it might be only a 7% annual increase. Or whatever, I don't know the actual number. The point is that government will still grow.
The Penny plan I mentioned above would be an actual cut. If this year's budget is $3.7 trillion, next year's would be $3.6 trillion, and so on. This is how a tiny 1% cut each year will save us $7.5 trillion and bring the budget into complete balance in about just years.
Finally, let's remember who put us in this position. Yeah, it took both parties decades to build the foundation of our massive debt and reckless spending habits. But, starting with the Democrat-controlled Congress in 2007, spending has skyrocketed out of control, and Obama's spending binge starting in 2009 has thrown fuel on the fire. Recall the deficit picture over the past decade or so:
The big deficits that threw Dems into hissy fits back when George W. Bush was President were on the order of $200-300 billion. Now Obama and the Dems have racked up $1.6 trillion deficits for the indefinite future. In terms of the overall debt, look at the indisputable historical facts:
| Date | Dollar Amount |
|---|---|
| 09/30/2010 | 13,561,623,030,891.79 |
| 09/30/2009 | 11,909,829,003,511.75 |
| 09/30/2008 | 10,024,724,896,912.49 |
| 09/30/2007 | 9,007,653,372,262.48 |
| 09/30/2006 | 8,506,973,899,215.23 |
| 09/30/2005 | 7,932,709,661,723.50 |
| 09/30/2004 | 7,379,052,696,330.32 |
| 09/30/2003 | 6,783,231,062,743.62 |
| 09/30/2002 | 6,228,235,965,597.16 |
| 09/30/2001 | 5,807,463,412,200.06 |
| 09/30/2000 | 5,674,178,209,886.86 |
It took 235 years to rack up $8 trillion in debt. Since 2007 -- just four years -- Democrats have almost doubled that amount. Can you imagine what this chart will look like after another four years of Obama running the show?
America can't afford Democrat leadership any longer. America also can't afford Republican squishiness like what we're seeing from Boehner and the other compromisers. It's absolutely critical that we make a distinct course change NOW before it's too late.
That changes starts with killing every plan currently on the table. Congress needs to pass Cut, Cap, and Balance or the Penny plan, but they won't do it without immense pressure from American citizens who understand what this country faces better than our elected representatives.
PICK. UP. THE. PHONE.
-------------------------------------
"But with respect to future debt; would it not be wise and just for that nation to declare in the constitution they are forming that neither the legislature, nor the nation itself can validly contract more debt, than they may pay within their own age, or within the term of 19 years." -- Thomas Jefferson, 1789
"But with respect to future debt; would it not be wise and just for that nation to declare in the constitution they are forming that neither the legislature, nor the nation itself can validly contract more debt, than they may pay within their own age, or within the term of 19 years." -- Thomas Jefferson, 1789
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Sadly Accurate
Unfortunately, the Republican leadership appear to be occupying the co-pilot seat. Doubly unfortunate is the fact that you and I and the rest of America is locked in the back of the cabin, pounding on the door and shouting at the idiots up front...but being ignored.
Debt Battle Mid-Day Update
Just a couple things to update you on what's going on.
The American public is pessimistic that any significant spending cuts will actually materialize. That's probably because Americans aren't stupid, and know that they never have in the past. What remains a mystery to me is the fact that GOPers in Washington are either too stupid to figure this out on their own, or are so arrogant that they think we're too stupid to figure out that what they're doing is merely rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
But, as per their usual playbook, the Democrats have -- in lieu of making an actual proposal of their own -- resorted to mocking and slandering the GOP. This time the Republicans are trying to ruin Christmas. It would be humorously silly, if there's weren't so many mind-numbed robots out there listening and believing that tripe rather than open their eyes to see that the Dems are obviously content to let the economy run itself into the ground as long as they're controlling the crash (while blaming Republicans, of course). It's pretty astounding, really.
Anyway, there's apparently a war in the GOP, as the leadership is trying to whip the numbers into shape, but conservative members of the House -- fueled by continued rage from constituents -- are resisting the transparent and destined-to-fail Boehner two-step plan and insisting on Cut, Cap and Balance instead. Which side will win? That remains to be seen, and you can have some influence on that if you're willing to make a call or two.
The bottom line is that the current Boehner plan is still a non-starter. This quote from an anonymous Democrat is just more proof it's a trap:
"The press will obsess about [today's House] vote [on the Boehner Two-Step], but at best it is an exercise in political machismo, at worst it is the beginning of the most irresponsible act in Congressional history. The House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate — at least 58 senators are on record saying they won't support it. That's worse than Ryan and cut, cap and balance. Once the vote is over, Speaker Boehner needs to begin immediately working on a way out of the mess Cantor created. If he doesn't, we could be in big trouble. There are dozens of possible compromises — he just has to take one. Reid, McConnell and the White House have plenty of options. The question is: Will he choose compromise for the sake of the country, or political grandstanding for the sake of his caucus?"
Okay, so the current line is that this is the best deal the Republicans are going to get. Really? The Cut, Cap and Balance bill got more votes in the Senate than that, so if the interest really is in getting the 'best deal we can get', then why not go with what GOP constituents want anyway?
From what I'm seeing, it appears that this is the likely scenario that will play out if no further major changes are introduced. The House will pass the Boehner bill, sending it to the Senate. The Dems in the Senate will take that bill, pull out what they don't like, throw in some new tax increases, and pass it right back. That would force Boehner and the House to either pass what the Dems wanted all along or kill his own bill (or the skeleton of it), and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Senate passes it back literally at the last minute - this would prevent Boehner from having time to come up with yet another alternative, and he would be the one left holding the ball when the clock runs out of time. Either way, Obama gets his tax increases and immediate debt limit increase, and Boehner loses.
As does America.
It sounds like the House is going to have a vote on the Boehner two-step plan this evening, so you have just a few hours left to call in and demand they stand firm for Cut, Cap, and Balance.
More updates as new developments occur.
Crunch Time
All right, it's crunch time, and this update will be short and sweet. If you have yet to call your House Rep, now's the time to do it. A vote is imminent, and Boehner thinks he's got the votes to pass his newly revised plan despite a freshly printed letter from all 53 Democrats in the Senate declaring his bill is DOA.
Not only do I think Erick Erickson at RedState is dead-on right, but he also uses a Star Wars metaphor ("it's our Admiral Ackbar moment"), so I'll quote his latest here:
From another post yesterday, this sums up the boiling frustration and rage at the GOP from its own base (emphasis mine):
These people apparently can't figure that last part out.
*sigh*
Not only do I think Erick Erickson at RedState is dead-on right, but he also uses a Star Wars metaphor ("it's our Admiral Ackbar moment"), so I'll quote his latest here:
As you wake up, here is what you need to know.
John Boehner thinks he has the votes to pass his third plan out of the House. Work to make sure he does not by going to http://www.redstate.com/action and calling your member of Congress. Tell them to oppose Boehner’s plan.
Even if you are sympathetic to Boehner’s plan, here is why it must be killed — it is a trap.
Pay attention please.
Harry Reid and all the Senate Democrats have sent John Boehner a letter saying they will oppose his plan in the Senate. In other words, Boehner’s plan, given the GOP votes in the Senate pledged to vote against it, will get less votes in both the House and in the Senate than Cut, Cap, and Balance.
Here, though, is why it is important to kill John Boehner’s plan this very morning before today’s vote.
John Boehner’s plan will get to the Senate. Harry Reid’s plan isn’t even in final form and has not even started making its way through the Senate’s arcane processes. It is a trap.
Harry Reid will amend John Boehner’s plan and include parts of Reid’s own plan that make tax increases even more likely than Boehner’s already does.
Senate Democrats last night were beginning to talk about adding the Gang of Six’s very bad plan to it as well — a trigger that would be engaged should the Democrats then refuse to reform entitlements, i.e. a trigger the Democrats will gladly engage because the Gang of Six plan raises taxes, including getting rid of the employer credit for active duty military reservists and raising the capital gains tax from 15% to 28%.
Then the Senate Democrats will send John Boehner back his own plan and dare John Boehner to kill his very own proposal. Should he try, the GOP will look as hardline and unwilling to compromise as John Boehner’s acolytes have been accusing conservatives of being this week.
In other words, John Boehner, once he sends his plan to the Senate, will yet again get played and the GOP will be forced to either accept Harry Reid’s awful changes or be blamed for causing the nation’s default — the very thing the GOP has sought to avoid.
Oh, and should the GOP fold and pass the modified Boehner plan, they’ll still get blamed for us losing our credit rating. Even with Boehner’s revisions, the Congressional Budget Office says the plan doesn’t cut even $1 trillion. It doesn’t meet S&P’s requirements.
Well done, Republicans.
The only thing we can do is call our congressmen and prevent them from voting for this suicide pact. Go here now.
From another post yesterday, this sums up the boiling frustration and rage at the GOP from its own base (emphasis mine):
One week ago the entire conservative movement was unified behind Cut, Cap, and Balance as was both House and Senate GOP caucus — no small feat to be sure.
Then, because Harry Reid denied CCB a vote through a procedural motion, John Boehner produces a crackpot plan that rips the conservative movement apart at the seams and after taking two stabs at it, still can’t get to the promised $1.2 trillion in cuts he initially claimed it would have.
The bill is being whipped against by Pelosi (which CCB was not) and will likely draw less Dem support than CCB. The bill is said by Reid to be DOA in the Senate.
But Boehner believes that it is strategically smarter to die on this hill and force it down Senate Dems throats rather than try to do that on a bill in which he has the support of all his members, all the movement, and 66 percent of the American people.
These people apparently can't figure that last part out.
*sigh*
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Beating The Dead Horse
Another day, another compromise. Another day, more political gamesmanship. Another day, more lies. It's Washington business as usual, so let's take a look. Once again, we'll focus on both sides of the issue - Obama and the Democrats, and Boehner and the Republicans.
First, the GOP.
The new plan is not good enough. While it does accomplish a couple of things (forcing the debt limit issue again prior to the 2012 election, no explicit raising of taxes, etc.), it lacks the real punch needed to change course:
Isn't there a real solution out there?
Why yes, yes there is: Cut, Cap, and Balance. Many conservative members of the House are clamoring for it, even to the point of rebelling against Boehner's plan. I don't know if you were trying to call or e-mail your representatives yesterday, but if you were, you probably didn't get through. Most (if not all) of their contact websites were down, and the switchboards were at capacity trying to handle the angry calls from people demanding fiscal responsibility. CCB would have a real and tangible effect on the economy, and show the world that our leaders are serious about getting the reckless spending under control and preventing a default (in fact, three smaller ratings agencies have already downgraded America). Boehner needs to get this through his thick skull and rally the troops under this flag, forcing the Democrats and Obama to either get on board for America or defend why they wouldn't. It would be quite easy, in fact, because most of the troops are already rallying...they just need him to be the leader and push the issue forward.
We'll come back to the GOP in a moment, but let's now turn to Obama and the Democrats.
It must be very taxing for the Perpetual-Campaigner-In-Chief to have to actually deal with being held accountable for his policies and decisions. For example, in 2008 his final campaign ad asked whether or not Americans were better off than they were four years ago. Ironically, the same question can now be asked of him, and the answer isn't to his liking. That probably goes a long way in explaining why his approval rating on his handling of the economy has plummeting to a new low - under 40%. His overall approval rating is just slightly higher - 43%. He's even losing his own base:
Oh, and in case you're keeping track, there is still no plan from the White House. Obama has gotten so ridiculous with his incessant wailing about needing a plan from Congress while putting forward no plan of his own that even the White House reporters are starting to heckle his spokesman. Watch (the whole thing is entertaining, but the first 2 minutes are sufficient to get the point):
While publicly threatening to veto essentially anything with Boehner's name on it, it's an empty threat. Not only does Obama not have any better option, but he is also quietly reassuring banks that no default will occur. In short, it looks like any deal that can make it through Congress will get the President's signature out of sheer desperation because Obama knows he will not survive being the only one to prevent any deal from going through, especially after ratcheting up the armageddon-like rhetoric and blustering he's been throwing around if Congress can't come up with a deal. He's stuck.
And so, this should be the perfect opportunity for the GOP to both drive a stake in the heart of reckless liberal spending policies, as well as forcing the Dems to do something to benefit America for a change. Instead, we can see the cave coming in slow motion. Erick Erickson at RedState is one of the few stalwarts that I've seen who has been tireless in demanding the GOP pick this fight. Here he is again, verbally pummeling those who are caving for compromise. This is long, but absolutely dead-on:
Here's where you come in. The more people call and email their elected representatives and demand Cut, Cap, and Balance, the more likely it will be that the GOP grows a spine. Without that...compromise is essentially guaranteed, and that means Obama and the Democrats win both the PR battle and the battle over whether or not spending is reigned in. So, you need to pick up the phone (if the national number is busy, call a local office) and send an email. Demand CCB, and demand no compromise.
On a completely *cough cough* unrelated note, Congressional approval has reached a new record low for the second month in a row at a whopping 6% approval.
In the meantime, all we're likely to get from Empty-Speechifier-In-Chief Obama is more of this:
First, the GOP.
The new plan is not good enough. While it does accomplish a couple of things (forcing the debt limit issue again prior to the 2012 election, no explicit raising of taxes, etc.), it lacks the real punch needed to change course:
And we discussed yesterday how every previous commission has worked out: FAILURE. Upon hearing the news from the CBO, Boehner has committed to re-write his bill to cover the difference, but it is fundamentally lacking. Even conservatives who find much to like about the plan are saying it's a non-starter.We have asserted ad nauseam that any proposed budget plan that fails to countermand the current prodigal spending levels, including the modestly reduced spending levels of 2011, is not worth the paper it is printed on. The CBO estimates that Boehner’s $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending cuts will only save us $850 billion over ten years. This means that Obama’s credit card increase will be higher than the concurrent spending cuts, thus voiding the promise of the dollar-for-dollar agreement. Moreover, the CBO estimates that all the cuts will be backloaded, as the estimated savings for next year – the only enforceable year – will be a negligible $1 billion! It turns out that an extra $4 billion in mandatory spending for Pell Grants will ostensibly wipe out any savings from the paltry discretionary cuts.
This plan is worse than a strikeout; it’s a ground ball into a double play.
A mere lousy plan would have destroyed our leverage over the debt ceiling fight; Boehner’s plan obviates our future leverage over the FY 2012 budget fight in late September as well. The House-passed budget resolution, known as the Paul Ryan budget, authorized $1.019 trillion in non-emergency discretionary spending for FY 2012. Boehner’s bill authorizes $1.043 trillion.
Additionally, all the reforms in entitlement and welfare spending that were adopted in the Ryan budget (including reforms of Pell Grants) will be jettisoned and exchanged for a grand bargain formulated by the Super Commission.
Isn't there a real solution out there?
Why yes, yes there is: Cut, Cap, and Balance. Many conservative members of the House are clamoring for it, even to the point of rebelling against Boehner's plan. I don't know if you were trying to call or e-mail your representatives yesterday, but if you were, you probably didn't get through. Most (if not all) of their contact websites were down, and the switchboards were at capacity trying to handle the angry calls from people demanding fiscal responsibility. CCB would have a real and tangible effect on the economy, and show the world that our leaders are serious about getting the reckless spending under control and preventing a default (in fact, three smaller ratings agencies have already downgraded America). Boehner needs to get this through his thick skull and rally the troops under this flag, forcing the Democrats and Obama to either get on board for America or defend why they wouldn't. It would be quite easy, in fact, because most of the troops are already rallying...they just need him to be the leader and push the issue forward.
We'll come back to the GOP in a moment, but let's now turn to Obama and the Democrats.
It must be very taxing for the Perpetual-Campaigner-In-Chief to have to actually deal with being held accountable for his policies and decisions. For example, in 2008 his final campaign ad asked whether or not Americans were better off than they were four years ago. Ironically, the same question can now be asked of him, and the answer isn't to his liking. That probably goes a long way in explaining why his approval rating on his handling of the economy has plummeting to a new low - under 40%. His overall approval rating is just slightly higher - 43%. He's even losing his own base:
The Post-ABC poll found that the number of liberal Democrats who strongly support Obama’s record on jobs plunged 22 points from 53 percent last year to 31 percent. The number of African Americans who believe the president’s actions have helped the economy has dropped from 77 percent in October to just over half of those surveyed.It doesn't take Karl Rove to figure out that means big trouble for him in 2012.
Oh, and in case you're keeping track, there is still no plan from the White House. Obama has gotten so ridiculous with his incessant wailing about needing a plan from Congress while putting forward no plan of his own that even the White House reporters are starting to heckle his spokesman. Watch (the whole thing is entertaining, but the first 2 minutes are sufficient to get the point):
While publicly threatening to veto essentially anything with Boehner's name on it, it's an empty threat. Not only does Obama not have any better option, but he is also quietly reassuring banks that no default will occur. In short, it looks like any deal that can make it through Congress will get the President's signature out of sheer desperation because Obama knows he will not survive being the only one to prevent any deal from going through, especially after ratcheting up the armageddon-like rhetoric and blustering he's been throwing around if Congress can't come up with a deal. He's stuck.
And so, this should be the perfect opportunity for the GOP to both drive a stake in the heart of reckless liberal spending policies, as well as forcing the Dems to do something to benefit America for a change. Instead, we can see the cave coming in slow motion. Erick Erickson at RedState is one of the few stalwarts that I've seen who has been tireless in demanding the GOP pick this fight. Here he is again, verbally pummeling those who are caving for compromise. This is long, but absolutely dead-on:
I couldn't agree more.People want a deal. People want John Boehner’s deal. People are upset with me for not liking John Boehner’s deal. People are telling me, “They only have one house, Erick. You can’t expect them to not compromise. They control nothing.”
I’ve said all along I expect a deal and a compromise. Here’s the problem and I need you to understand this from perspective, whether you agree with me or not.
See, I worked to send people to Washington, DC to solve problems, to make things right, to fix the things that were broken, and to send power back to the states. They are not doing that.
We all saw Democrats go to Washington in 2008 and take the whole thing. They controlled everything and they made everything worse. They passed a stimulus bill that killed or ruined hundreds of thousands of jobs in the private sector while growing the government. They increased dependency on the federal government. And then they passed Obamacare and socialized American healthcare. But it doesn’t fully take effect until 2014. We saw Democrats willing to lose their positions to lurch the nation left.
So we sent to Washington an army of conservatives to Washington to defund Obamacare and stop the White House. And now they’ve gotten there and have refused to fight. They promised and put in writing that they’d cut $100 billion from the federal government budget in 2011 and they ultimately cut only $38 billion. The Congressional Budget Office, when it was done scoring it, said they really were only cutting about $500 million and it would cost more money that it was worth it to actually cut those dollars.
So they said, “But we”ll stand firm on the debt ceiling. We’ll hold the line.” Everybody gave them a pass and said, “Okay, hold the line on the debt ceiling.”
Now here we are the week before the deadline. John Boehner laments they should have done it sooner, but he refused to do it sooner. The Speaker has prevented the Republicans from submitting legislation to ensure we would not default so that he would have leverage over his own members to force them to take a deal. And now they are dealing.What is their deal?
Their deal creates another committee to look at spending — the 18th in the past 30 years. These 18 committees have never done anything except raise taxes. Their spending cuts are put off a decade and future congresses ignore them.
Boehner’s spending caps are easily waived as they’ll be rules, not laws. And they punt.
A lot of you are emailing and getting on twitter saying to take the deal. Take the compromise. Why should we compromise? That’s what we always do. Even when in the majority we compromise. The Democrats didn’t compromise on healthcare. But you people want to compromise. Republicans, whether in the majority or minority, are always compromising in favor of bigger government and imaginary spending cuts.
To make matters worse, why the hell are the Republicans the ones coming up with the plans if they only control one house of one branch of the federal government? Why are they doing it? We’re on the third damn plan. They aren’t even compromising with the Democrats. They are compromising with themselves.
The Democrats are holding their line. The GOP is splitting conservatives. The Democrats are saying “Raise the debt ceiling. Don’t cut anything.” And Boehner is saying okay and putting in cuts that take affect in year eight of ten so none of them will be around to be held accountable. Why?
The GOP came up with Paul Ryan’s plan. They passed it. They took bullets. The GOP put him in a witness protection program and dropped it like a hot potato.
So then the GOP passed Cut, Cap, and Balance and the Democrats beat them up and again accused the GOP of killing grandma. The leadership was lukewarm to it and never fought for it. And immediately after voting for it, the leadership said, “Now, let’s move on to the third plan.”
Are these all just symbolic votes? If so, I’d rather some substance. This symbolism is getting the GOP killed with nothing to show for it.
Why the hell are we on our third plan when the Democrats haven’t even come up with one plan? They haven’t even passed a budget in over 800 days. We’re in this mess because Harry Reid, in December of 2010, refused the raise the debt ceiling so the GOP could own the problem. The GOP fell into the trap with eyes wide open.
And the Republicans are falling for it yet again.
And now I’m being accused of thinking this is all a game even by long time RedState readers. I do not think this is all a game.
I know the credit rating is going to be downgraded and I don’t want it to happen. You people who want the deal are so worked up in emotion that you are ignoring all the facts. Here are the facts:
1. S&P says we need a deal of at least $4 trillion in cuts to avoid a credit rating drop.
2. Neither Boehner nor Reid get us there.
3. The only plan that gets us there is Cut, Cap, and Balance and the GOP is running away from it as fast as they can. The GOP already passed it and it just four votes shy of a majority in the Senate.
No one wants to fight. “No, we’ve already had that vote. It can’t pass the Senate,” they say.
There will be no default on August 2nd. We know it will not happen. How do we know? Because we have more money coming in each month than is needed to pay principle and interest on our national debt. And we have had multiple prior occasions where we have gone passed the deadline and the world did not suddenly end. It is all political rhetoric. Shame on you for succumbing to fear.
Barack Obama does not want to be remembered as the President on whose watch the nation defaulted. His leverage goes away on August 3rd and the GOP holds all the cards. We won’t default. We can improve our negotiating position.
The GOP could hold the line. And because they won’t hold the line, they are tanking our credit behind a bunch of smoke and mirrors. If the Democrats blame the GOP when the credit rating drops, the GOP will damn well deserve the blame if they stick with Boehner’s plan.
They could at least fight to turn the tide. They could at least hold the line.
Here's where you come in. The more people call and email their elected representatives and demand Cut, Cap, and Balance, the more likely it will be that the GOP grows a spine. Without that...compromise is essentially guaranteed, and that means Obama and the Democrats win both the PR battle and the battle over whether or not spending is reigned in. So, you need to pick up the phone (if the national number is busy, call a local office) and send an email. Demand CCB, and demand no compromise.
On a completely *cough cough* unrelated note, Congressional approval has reached a new record low for the second month in a row at a whopping 6% approval.
In the meantime, all we're likely to get from Empty-Speechifier-In-Chief Obama is more of this:
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