Thursday, July 28, 2011

Debt Battle Mid-Day Update

Just a couple things to update you on what's going on.

The American public is pessimistic that any significant spending cuts will actually materialize.  That's probably because Americans aren't stupid, and know that they never have in the past.  What remains a mystery to me is the fact that GOPers in Washington are either too stupid to figure this out on their own, or are so arrogant that they think we're too stupid to figure out that what they're doing is merely rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

But, as per their usual playbook, the Democrats have -- in lieu of making an actual proposal of their own -- resorted to mocking and slandering the GOP.  This time the Republicans are trying to ruin Christmas.  It would be humorously silly, if there's weren't so many mind-numbed robots out there listening and believing that tripe rather than open their eyes to see that the Dems are obviously content to let the economy run itself into the ground as long as they're controlling the crash (while blaming Republicans, of course).  It's pretty astounding, really.

Anyway, there's apparently a war in the GOP, as the leadership is trying to whip the numbers into shape, but conservative members of the House -- fueled by continued rage from constituents -- are resisting the transparent and destined-to-fail Boehner two-step plan and insisting on Cut, Cap and Balance instead.  Which side will win?  That remains to be seen, and you can have some influence on that if you're willing to make a call or two.

The bottom line is that the current Boehner plan is still a non-starter.  This quote from an anonymous Democrat is just more proof it's a trap:

"The press will obsess about [today's House] vote [on the Boehner Two-Step], but at best it is an exercise in political machismo, at worst it is the beginning of the most irresponsible act in Congressional history. The House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate — at least 58 senators are on record saying they won't support it. That's worse than Ryan and cut, cap and balance. Once the vote is over, Speaker Boehner needs to begin immediately working on a way out of the mess Cantor created. If he doesn't, we could be in big trouble. There are dozens of possible compromises — he just has to take one. Reid, McConnell and the White House have plenty of options. The question is: Will he choose compromise for the sake of the country, or political grandstanding for the sake of his caucus?"

Okay, so the current line is that this is the best deal the Republicans are going to get.  Really?  The Cut, Cap and Balance bill got more votes in the Senate than that, so if the interest really is in getting the 'best deal we can get', then why not go with what GOP constituents want anyway?

From what I'm seeing, it appears that this is the likely scenario that will play out if no further major changes are introduced.  The House will pass the Boehner bill, sending it to the Senate.  The Dems in the Senate will take that bill, pull out what they don't like, throw in some new tax increases, and pass it right back.  That would force Boehner and the House to either pass what the Dems wanted all along or kill his own bill (or the skeleton of it), and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Senate passes it back literally at the last minute - this would prevent Boehner from having time to come up with yet another alternative, and he would be the one left holding the ball when the clock runs out of time.  Either way, Obama gets his tax increases and immediate debt limit increase, and Boehner loses.

As does America.

It sounds like the House is going to have a vote on the Boehner two-step plan this evening, so you have just a few hours left to call in and demand they stand firm for Cut, Cap, and Balance.

More updates as new developments occur.

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