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Obama presidency: Debt, Downgrade, and Delay
One in four Democrats wants to dump Obama
Obama job approval remains at record low
The earthquake near the nation’s capital this week prompted speculation about fault lines in the Washington DC area. This has actually been a hot topic for the White House, as it desperately searches for ways to blame the economic failures of Barack Obama on anyone but Barack Obama. The President and his team have repeatedly blamed “bad luck,” corporate jet owners, the Tea Party, and the weather for the malaise and high unemployment that have become hallmarks of his term in office. Two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist Michael Ramirez of Investors Business Daily puts the two stories into his singularly unique perspective:
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IBD also has a stinging editorial about the economic failures of the Obama administration:Obama likes to blame the depth of the downturn for the “painfully slow” recovery. “We didn’t get into this mess overnight, and we won’t get out of it overnight. It’s going to take time,” he said — nearly a year ago.
The claim is bogus. This recession lasted only slightly longer than the 1981-82 contraction — 18 months vs. 16 — and wasn’t as severe when measured by peak unemployment.
But the economy came screaming out of that downturn, and in three quarters was already well into an expansion. The 1973-75 recession lasted 16 months, but also took only three quarters to fully recover.
Obama’s also fond of blaming the sluggish recovery on the fact the recession resulted from a “financial crisis,” alleging that something about that kind of recession makes for a longer recovery time. But it’s not like all the other slumps didn’t have any hint of financial crisis behind them.
Now he and his friends have taken to blaming bad luck and Republican bad faith for supposedly weakening what had been an improving economy.
“In 2010 … we were growing,” Obama’s former chief economic adviser Austan Goolsbee said Thursday. “Now, at the beginning of this year, we get earthquakes, tsunamis, revolutions in the Middle East, European financial crises. Now we got earthquakes outside of Washington, D.C.”
But Obama’s recovery was vastly inferior to previous ones well before these alleged headwinds emerged. Plus, revised GDP numbers show that the recovery was softening throughout 2010, with GDP growth slowing in each successive quarter.
Small wonder Ramirez calls the White House the “epicenter of excuses.”
78th time, if you’re counting. Helps him think. After all, he’s gotta get that jobs package together, which he assures us will save the economy.
Michelle Obama Thursday traveled separately from President Obama to Martha’s Vineyard, costing taxpayers thousands in additional expenses to get her a few hours of extra vacation time.
In order to win re-election, Barack Obama really needs an economic renaissance. As James Pethokoukis reports for Reuters, it’s looking increasingly clear that he’s not going to get it. The big analysts are now banking on almost zero growth and even higher unemployment than we have now for next year’s presidential election:
The White House’s worst-case scenario for the economy on Election Day next year has become Wall Street’s baseline scenario. After looking at a string of weak economic reports and Europe’s growing fear of debt meltdown and contagion, JPMorgan – led by Obama pal Jamie Dimon – has just come out with a politically poisonous forecast.
The megabank now thinks the economy won’t grow much faster over the next 12 months than it did during the first half of this year — and that’s assuming Europe doesn’t go all pear shaped. It sees GDP growth at just 1.5 percent this year, 1.3 percent next year with unemployment at … 9.5 percent heading into the final days of the election season. “The risks of recession are clearly elevated,” the bank said. Here’s its reasoning:
Consumer sentiment has tumbled and household wealth has deteriorated. Survey measures of capital spending intentions have moved lower and the housing market shows little sign of lifting. Small businesses, retailers, builders and manufacturers all report a weaker business environment. Global growth has disappointed and foreign growth forecasts have been taken lower. In response we are lowering our projection for growth, particularly in the quarters around the turn of the year.
Team Obama had better permanently shelve any plans of running a “Morning in America”campaign. In fact, if a) the economic forecasts of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are accurate, and b) voters behave as they usually do during bad economic times, then c) Barack Obama will be a one-term president. No president in the modern era has been reelected with the unemployment rate higher than 7.4 percent, much less two percentage points higher.
It’s worth noting that we’d have to actually improve to get to 1.5% GDP growth in 2011. The advance Q2 number was 1.3%, and the Q1 figure got downgraded to 0.4%. So far, there have been no indications of improvement by the middle of Q3, and the Philly Fed economic index drop suggests a weaker GDP number for this quarter. If we stay in the mid-1% range for an extended period of time, we will start losing net jobs again, which will feed into the pressure on Obama.
Basically, we’re looking at a replay of 1980′s election, and perhaps even the 1976 election as well, although that had a lot of other baggage than just economic malaise, such as Gerald Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon and general anger at Republicans for Watergate. George H. W. Bush lost his re-election bid after the economy tipped over into a mild recession in 1990-1 and had already begun recovering by 1992; Clinton ran on the economy and managed to win it in a three-way race. These kind of economic numbers suggest a landslide defeat for Obama. Even if they turn out to be a little on the pessimistic side, Obama won’t get much support for, say, 2.2% growth and 8.7% unemployment by next summer.
Can Obama make the election next year about anything else but the economy? The only issue that voters care about at even close to the same level is the federal budget deficit and the debt, where Obama wants to raise taxes and leave the drivers of debt and deficits – entitlement programs – largely alone. Unless Obama manages to score a big victory on national security, this next election is looking pretty grim. And Obama can ask Bush 41 about how much a big victory over Saddam Hussein in 1991 helped him in the 1992 election.
Over the past few days, we've received more than 1,000 horror stories about bad cable experiences: tales of bad techs, terrible service, and troubling billing practices. We used those to build a cable customer's bill of rights.
As we read our readers' stories, we noticed patterns. The same things go wrong again and again. The same things keep popping up. And it turns out, what we expect is really quite simple. We want to get what we pay for; we don't want to pay for things we don't use; we expect to be treated fairly and honestly. This is what we expect of our cable companies. These are our basic rights.
Or at least, they should be.
1. We should be able to choose the channels we want
And more to the point, we ought to be able to only pay for the channels we select. Hundreds of channels are meaningless if we only watch a dozen. We (almost) all have digital boxes now. A la carte pricing is feasible, and reasonable. Make it happen.
2. Appointments should be kept
If we've taken a half day off of work to wait for a cable technician, the tech should show up: on time, as promised. If a tech will be late, we deserve a phone call to let us know that. No shows are completely unacceptable.
3. Installation windows should be no longer than two hours
But we shouldn't have to take a half day off of work at all. We really want to be able to schedule an appointment at a particular point in time. But we understand: The cable guy has to crawl through an attic at midnight in rural New Hampshire before he can to get to us, or whatever. Fine. If you have to use a window, make it reasonable. We're willing to accept two hours. Don't make us wait longer than that.
4. Get it right the first time
Look, Kabletown, it costs you money every time you have to send a tech to our pad. Do yourself—and us—a favor: Implement a process where you verify everything to the customer's satisfaction at the end of a service appointment. The tech should arrive with all the equipment he or she needs, even if that means driving a rolling electronics shop. If you have to come out a second time, compensate us for our time.
5. Deliver the speed we pay for
Hey Mr. Cable Operator: Have you seen speedtest.net? Because we have. And all too often. Many of us are not getting the speeds we're paying for. Don't blame this on our router. Don't blame it on our Mac. We're too smart for that. And we don't care what's going on in our neighborhood. That doesn't matter! What matters is that we're paying for more than we're receiving. Fix it, or give us a refund.
6. Make our bills clear and detailed
Speaking of speed, print it on our bill. Don't say we're paying for "blast," and then make us have to go look that up online. Print that we're paying for 20Mbps downloads. Instead of printing "x6" print "six month introductory rate." Print the date that discount ends. Don't use abbreviations. Don't surprise us.
7. Our bills should be accurate
It's infuriating that we even have to mention this, but we do. Please don't bill us for services we don't use or equipment we don't have. Don't double bill us in two locations when we move. Don't end our teaser rates before they expire. Don't charge us more than you offered us on the phone.
8. Don't cap our bandwidth
Look. We like to play games. We have roommates. We stream Netflix and Hulu and ESPN. We need a lot of bandwidth. That's why we have cable Internet to begin with. Sometimes, we'll need more than 250GB a month. Sometimes, it's going to be a lot all at once. If you feel like you must institute a bandwidth cap, make that plain. Mark it in bold text on the service plan itself. Tell us when we call you to sign up. Make it just as apparent as the speed you're advertising. Better yet, why cap it at all? Give us an unlimited option. We'll pay for it. At least for now.
9. Equip your call centers to do everything
Your call centers ought to be able to handle anything we send their way, from getting a tech to our place, to fixing a problem on our bill, to getting us new equipment. We don't care where they are, just what they can do. It doesn't matter if we're calling Bangalore, India or Bangor, Maine; whoever we talk to should be able to handle all our problems. No, we don't want to hold while you transfer us. No, we don't want to call a different number.
10. Honor all your offers
No matter where you make an offer, you ought to honor it. Don't advertise one rate online and then tell us we can't have it because we called in. If you're offering a discount on the Internet, it should be available whether we call you up, walk into an office, or telex you our credit card number. All of your sales staff should know about it, and be able to access it no matter where they work. When you tell us that the offer we saw online is only available if we sign up over the Internet, we feel lied to. And we hate feeling lied to.
Hot Air also adds this:After months under fire for producing no plan to address the debt, deficit and unemployment, the president has at last decided to … give another speech. The Washington Times reports:
Hmm. Sounds a little like the budget speech he gave in April — a roundabout way of addressing the problem without addressing the problem and, more importantly, without committing to a concrete plan.Seeking a jolt for a wilting economy, President Obama will give a major speech in early September to announce new ideas for speeding up job growth and helping the struggling poor and middle class, a senior administration official told the Associated Press.
The president’s plan is likely to contain tax cuts, jobs-boosting infrastructure ideas and steps that would specifically help the long-term unemployed. The official emphasized that all of Mr. Obama’s proposals would be fresh ones, not a rehash of plans he has pitched for many weeks and still supports, including his “infrastructure bank” idea to finance construction jobs.
On a significant and related front, Mr. Obama also will present a specific plan to cut the suffocating long-term national debt and to pay for the cost of his new short-term economic ideas.
His debt proposal will be bigger than the $1.5 trillion package that a new “supercommittee” of Congress must come up with by late November.
More not to look for: Any assumption of responsibility from the president, who, as he has toured the Midwest to make the case to the American people that he has “stabilized” the economy ... has made a point to paint an image of this Congress as the do-nothing obstacle to his purportedly proactive leadership.Yep, that seems to be one of his recurring themes these days. Of course, even that facade will only happen after his next vacation. Upon hearing that news, Donald Trump mused that Obama 'takes more vacations than any other human being' he's ever seen. Hard to argue with that, really.
His approval ratings are making gravity look sluggish. This is what continually amazes and dismays me about the current Republican leadership - they should be hammering away at these numbers day in and day out, boldly and aggressively attacking on every front. *sigh*Almost 50 points underwater on the seminal issue of the age. If that holds and he figures out a way to get reelected anyway, maybe he really is the messiah.
That had better be some speech next month, champ.
A new low of 26% of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, down 11 percentage points since Gallup last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010.
Obama earns similarly low approval for his handling of the federal budget deficit (24%) and creating jobs (29%).
Note well: Among independents he’s under 50 percent on all seven key metrics, bottoming out in the low 20s on jobs and the economy and in the teens on the deficit.
Over at Rasmussen, the number who say the country’s on the right track stands at a sparkling 15 percent, down 10 points in just a month.
I dunno, I might actually agree with him on this one. It truly can't be said we're in danger of another recession when we actually haven't pulled out of the first one yet. But, that's a debate for another time.Who wants to be the one to tell him?
“I don’t think we’re in danger of another recession, but we are in danger of not having a recovery that’s fast enough to deal with a genuine unemployment crisis for a whole lot of folks out there,” Mr. Obama told CBS News Senior Business Correspondent Anthony Mason. “And that’s why we need to be doing more.”…
“What is absolutely true is confidence matters,” Mr. Obama replied. “We should not have had any kind of brinksmanship around the debt ceiling.”
“I wish [House Speaker John Boehner] had taken me up on a grand bargain to deal with our long term debt and deficit,” he said. “We still have the opportunity to fix that. It’s not too late. I will be putting forward a plan that will be similar to the plan I put forward to the speaker.”
Translation: If we do end up in a double dip, it’ll be your fault. Just like everything else.
[W]hile Obama’s public remarks were often filled with implicit threats against resistant Republicans, he also talked at length about the promise and potential of America, and how the three days viewing the country aboard a specially outfitted bus had reminded him of that.All fine and good. But the buses he's using on this tour were custom made for this trip...in Canada. One Republican Congressman commented, "Well, I guess he not only likes Canadian health care, but he likes Canadian RV's". Indeed. And has anyone stopped to ask why the colors of these buses are black and red (colors long associated with Communism) rather than red, white, and blue? And what about the sheer green-ness of the whole thing? After all, it's a 40-car 2-minute procession everywhere it goes? How many trees are being planted to compensate for the evil, EVIL carbon footprint he's laying down all over these states? Hypocrisy abounds, my friends.
...
He touched upon red-blooded American motifs. “We’ve got folks in America driving Kias and Hyundais. I want to see folks in Korea driving Fords and Chryslers and Chevys,” Obama said Tuesday in Peosta. “ I want to sell goods all over the world that are stamped with three words: 'Made in America.'”
At a town hall meeting on his campaign-style tour of the Midwest, President Obama claimed that his economic program "reversed the recession" until recovery was frustrated by events overseas. And then, Obama said, with the economy in an increasingly precarious position, the recovery suffered another blow when Republicans pressed the White House for federal spending cuts in exchange for an increase in the national debt limit, resulting in a deal Obama called a "debacle."
"We had reversed the recession, avoided a depression, gotten the economy moving again," Obama told a crowd in Decorah, Iowa. "But over the last six months we've had a run of bad luck." Obama listed three events overseas -- the Arab Spring uprisings, the tsunami in Japan, and the European debt crises -- which set the economy back.
You don't see a lot of late-Friday-afternoon posts, and by Friday evening, the computer is off, the kids are running around, and dinner is in progress. Barring some developments that are impossible to ignore, such as Osama bin Laden being killed, I try to fast from news for 48 hours or so.
Boy, was this a good weekend to avoid the news.
The rumors were out by 5 p.m., but a little after 8 p.m., it was official from Standard & Poors:
We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating. . . .
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011. . . .
We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
That's a thoroughly depressing -- and no doubt, brutally honest -- assessment.
Naturally, the Obama administration did what it does best in response: They blamed their political opponents.
This was a "tea party downgrade," said [Obama's chief strategist David] Axelrod on CBS News' Face the Nation.
Axelrod said S&P's decision was "largely a political analysis." "And that's what we should focus on because what they were saying is they want to see the political system work. They want to see a sense of compromise. They want to see the kind of solution that the president has been fighting for, a large solution that will deal with the problem, that will be balanced, that will include revenues."
Instead, said Axelrod, conservative, Tea Party-influenced Republicans "played brinksmanship with the full faith and credit of the United States. And this was the result of that."
"It was the wrong thing to do to push the country to that point" he said. "And it's something that should never have happened. And that clearly is on the backs of those who were willing to see the country default, those very strident voices in the tea party."
Of course. Nothing's ever their fault.
Actually, look above at that S&P statement. It doesn't say anything about increasing revenues. In fact, in the full statement, you'll see, "Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing."
It is revealing that Axelrod can look at this and declare, "They wanted to see revenues."
Doug Powers has had it:
For the first two years of Obama's presidency, the Democrats, including one John Kerry who now wants everybody to believe he's become a reborn frugalitarian, had full control of the Senate and House. At that point the Democrats could have done anything, including cutting back spending to sane levels (pause for laughter), but instead they went on a wild spending binge and presided over the largest expansion of government since World War II. . . .
Tea Party members of Congress should propose a new round of cuts to match what John Kerry says were on the table just to get to the level of responsible spending these Democrats are trying to have everybody believe they've been after all these years. It would be a nice outreach in the spirit of bipartisanship.
I like Ed Morrissey's analysis:
S&P didn't say anything yesterday that was not common knowledge and common sense. If you had to rate a potential investment that had an income of, say, $22,000 a year but had costs of $37,000 per year, a standing debt of $143,000, and contracted future debt that exceeded $1 million, would you give that investment a gold-plated AAA rating and buy their bonds at the lowest interest rate possible, or at all? Of course not, but that's exactly the fiscal situation of the US, at a 100,000,000:1 scale.
The anger is mainly misdirected. The media wants to blame the Tea Party, but the Tea Party wants to solve the actual problem -- overspending and over-commitment to entitlement programs. The Tea Party wants to blame the Obama administration, and it deserves some blame for refusing to address the real structural problems of the US fiscal condition. But that fiscal structure far predates Barack Obama, both as President and as human being, and Congresses and White Houses of both parties have done little to address the real problems in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
Why? Because as soon as people try to do so, demagogues accuse them of wanting to push Grandma over a cliff. Voters respond by punishing the reformers and rewarding the demagogues.
Nonetheless, the reckoning is at hand, and we can see who sees this depressing fiscal development as another crisis to not be wasted, another opportunity to demonize the opposition. It's what they've been doing since day one.
I'm reminded of Daniel Hannan's remarks to former U.K. prime minister Gordon Brown, and can't resist paraphrasing: "Soon the voters too will get their chance to say so. They can see what the markets have already seen: that you are the downgraded president of a downgraded country."
Fewer voters than ever feel the federal government has the consent of the governed.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 17% of Likely U.S. Voters think the federal government today has the consent of the governed. Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe the government does not have that consent. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. ...
The number of voters who feel the government has the consent of the governed - a foundational principle, contained in the Declaration of Independence - is down from 23% in early May and has fallen to its lowest level measured yet.
Perhaps it's no surprise voters feel this way since only eight percent (8%) believe the average member of Congress listens to his or her constituents more than to their party leaders. That, too, is the lowest level measured to date. Eighty-four percent (84%) think the average congressman listens to party leaders more than the voters they represent.
Voter approval of the job Congress is doing has fallen to a new low - for the second month in a row. Only six percent (6%) now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent.
"It's all talk and no real action. Otherwise he'd be on Biden and tell Biden to tone it down a little bit. Yeah, right, independent patriotic Americans who desire fiscal sanity in our beloved nation being called terrorists. Heck, Sean, if we were real domestic terrorists, shoot, President Obama would be wanting to pal around with us, wouldn’t he? I mean he didn’t have a problem paling around with Bill Ayers back in the day when he kicked off his political career in Bill Ayers' apartment," Palin said on FOX News' "Hannity."That stinging sensation you're feeling is the truth...
Obama tries to tap into the fuzzy warmth of his "incredible journey," recalling how unusually warm it was at his Grant Park victory party back in November of 2008. And then we get to the crux of Obama's mid-2011 fundraising theme song:
The thing that we all have to remember is, is that as much good as we’ve done, precisely because the challenges were so daunting, precisely because we were inheriting so many challenges, that we’re not even halfway there yet. When I said, “change we can believe in,” I didn’t say “change we can believe in tomorrow."
Remember his campaign pledge to 're-make' and 'fundamentally transform' America? Look around you at what he's already accomplished.