Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Mid-Day Update

Today the Dems are looking at a category 5 hurricane:

Barack Obama continues to implore American voters to "keep on believing", but they clearly aren't listening to a presidency that looks increasingly out of touch with public opinion. Gallup has just published its final survey before the November 2nd mid-terms. The poll is probably the worst so far for the White House, with its prediction that the midterms"could result in the largest Republican margin in house voting in several generations."

According to Gallup, the GOP has a staggering 15-point lead among likely voters:

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

Gallup predicts that the Republican Party will gain at least 60 seats in the House, "with gains well beyond that possible." If Gallup's polling proves correct on election day, November 2nd could well prove to be a seminal moment in American history, with the biggest Republican gain in the House of Representatives in over a century

This is uncharted territory, though, since the GOP has never held such a lead on the generic ballot.  That means everyone is just guessing, and it will really boil down to the votes themselves.  Either these numbers will be proven as inflated outliers or we're looking at a tsunami of wrath from the Right that will result in unprecedented electoral gains.  It would seem this could very well be genuine, though, given the enthusiasm gap per Gallup:

Americans' enthusiasm about voting exceeds the recent midterm election high set four years ago, with 50% of Americans and 53% of registered voters saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2010.

...

The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans' heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats' expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party's supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

The current gap is roughly double the last big Republican gap, and look how that turned out.  In certain areas that are normally Democrat strongholds, turnout appears to be low, offering more anecdotal evidence of panic on the Left.  Again, we'll see how it all plays out tonight, but indications are that the rout is on.

Another interesting note is not just Reps creaming Dems, but also conservative Reps taking the place of RINOs.  In one estimation, of the eight likely Republican holds (a Rep replacing another Rep) in the Senate, five or six will likely become more conservative.  For us conservatives who are fighting not only the Democrats but also the RINOs in our own party, this is excellent news, especially since it's happening in the Senate (a place where RINOs are especially problematic).  Another analysis of the same picture shows the potential of 45 Senators who are actually conservative, thus allowing them to block any substantial legislation, even if there is nominal RINO support for it.  Let's hope this holds true!

On a completely unrelated note, ABC anchoress Diane Sawyer is pleading for a few busloads of *ahem* perfectly legal voters to make a big difference in certain congressional races.  Um...objectivity FAIL, I'd say.  Don't bother watching any mainstream media source tonight unless you're just looking for the sheer entertainment value of their confusion and frustration with all of the Bible-thumping, gun-clinging, hayseed hick rube Nazis out there who are too shtoopid to support The One.  If that's what you're looking for, then kick back and enjoy, because there will likely be a LOT of it!

And, for a humorous explanation of Obama's World, check out this glossary.  A taste:

ACORN:  Never heard of it

Arizona:  Resembles 1930s Italy

beer summit:  Where investigating an apparent break-in is defined as acting "stupidly"

bipartisan:  A senator with a 97 percent partisan voting record 

Boehner, John:  Is to be blamed

bow:  Correct greeting for sheiks; for the Queen, an iPod is appropriate

BP:  Company requiring a boot on its neck to make it fork over $10 billion, or $15 billion — or why not $20 billion? 

campaign finance reform:  Applies to "them"

capital-gains taxes: Increase them even if that brings in less revenue (it's the punishment, stupid)

Chamber of Commerce:  Is really to be blamed 


Much, much more at the link.  Check it out!

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