Chiefs Vs. Chargers

I've gotta say, I'm a little tired of all the bagging on the Chiefs this week. All I've heard from the professional sports guys this week is that the Chargers are absolutely positively the better team, and that they just don't lose in December, and that they're going to be highly motivated in this must-win game and they're going to come out swinging hard, so the Chiefs really don't stand a chance.

Of course, being the non-professional sports guy that I am, I'm apparently not that smart. I mean, I look at the records and see this:

Chiefs 8-4

Chargers 6-6

Hm. Okay, what about in the division itself?

Chiefs 2-2

Chargers 1-3

Yes, clearly the Chargers are the better team. And golly-gee-whiz, I do believe the Chargers just lost last week (on December 5th). And you know what? That was a must-win game against the Raiders, too.

Yes, the Chargers have the second best statistical offense and the best statistical defense in the NFL. They also have a ton of turnovers and injuries, and a quarterback who appears more concerned with his own stats than the good of the team. And oh yeah, the Chiefs have a pretty darned good team, too. The Raiders ran wild on the Chargers last week, and guess who has the best run game this year? Yep, the Chiefs (though they'll certainly have to earn it - with Cassel being out, the Chargers are likely to stuff the box, so I would hope to see a lot of bootleg and misdirection plays, short passes, etc.). Sure, the Chargers are facing elimination if they lose tomorrow, and the Chiefs can afford to give up one game and still be in the lead. But they ended Denver's playoff hopes last year (when they were clearly the lesser team, and with nothing to play for) and the thought of killing San Diego this year has got to have them salivating.

So, I'm not buyin' the negativity. I think the Chiefs have a great chance to win this game. From what I can see, there are really two major obstacles. First is the fact that it's in San Diego. That's significant. It's usually pretty hard to win on the road, and this year is no different. Second, Matt Cassel had an appendectomy this week and will be on the sideline. That is huge, and probably the single biggest factor coming into tomorrow's game.

I've never been a fan of Brodie Croyle. He was injury prone in college and he's been injury prone in the NFL. He has a rocket launcher for an arm, but he has yet to win a game as a starter. Granted, he's got a much, much better team around him now than when he started a couple years ago, but I think that just helps underline my point: he'll be adequate to win the game tomorrow. And, the chiefs have great special teams and the Chargers have awful special teams, so that's the single biggest mismatch on the field and the Chiefs' biggest advantage. Plus, I think the Chiefs' motivation will be extremely high, and I think they'll rally around Croyle because they all like him and want him to succeed.

Here's what I think. I do think the Chargers will come out swinging, but I'm not convinced they'll keep it up for the entire game - I don't think they're nearly as mentally tough as everyone says they are. They looked pitiful last week against a so-so Raiders team, and while this week is do-or-die, last week was still pretty darned critical for their playoff hopes, too, so they still had plenty of motivation then and it didn't matter one bit. So, if the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead and take the crowd out of the game, and then if they can stifle the inevitable last gasp that will come toward the end of the game, it's a done deal.

Could I be wrong? Sure. In fact, since none of the pros are saying anything remotely like this, odds are good that I will be. We've had so many years where the Chiefs have sucked and somehow found creative ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory that I just don't think people want to be overly optimistic. However, I'd like to think that tomorrow we've got every bit as much to play for as the Chargers, but with the weapons to actually make it happen this time.

We'll see...